The São Paulo Senate race for first place remains highly competitive ahead of the October 4 vote, with recent mid-August polling from Paraná Pesquisas placing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, and Guilherme Derrite within the margin of error in a tight three-way contest. Voter fragmentation across ideological lines, combined with strong name recognition for the former ministers and the Progressive Party lawmaker, sustains the narrow spreads reflected in current trader pricing. Factors such as late consolidation of left- or right-leaning support, additional survey releases, or shifts in rejection rates could widen gaps, while the two-seat structure and single-round format keep outcomes sensitive to turnout and preference flows among remaining contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGuilherme Derrite 47%
Simone Tebet 31.1%
Marina Silva 12%
Salles 3.3%
$26,722 Vol.
$26,722 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
47%
Simone Tebet
31%
Marina Silva
12%
Salles
3%
André do Prado
7%
Soninha Francine
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Guilherme Derrite 47%
Simone Tebet 31.1%
Marina Silva 12%
Salles 3.3%
$26,722 Vol.
$26,722 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Guilherme Derrite
$13,134 Vol.
47%
Simone Tebet
$1,833 Vol.
31%
Marina Silva
$3,401 Vol.
12%
Salles
$1,514 Vol.
3%
André do Prado
$2,156 Vol.
7%
Soninha Francine
$474 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$383 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$700 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$368 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$552 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$405 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$613 Vol.
<1%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$737 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$452 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for first place remains highly competitive ahead of the October 4 vote, with recent mid-August polling from Paraná Pesquisas placing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, and Guilherme Derrite within the margin of error in a tight three-way contest. Voter fragmentation across ideological lines, combined with strong name recognition for the former ministers and the Progressive Party lawmaker, sustains the narrow spreads reflected in current trader pricing. Factors such as late consolidation of left- or right-leaning support, additional survey releases, or shifts in rejection rates could widen gaps, while the two-seat structure and single-round format keep outcomes sensitive to turnout and preference flows among remaining contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$26,722End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The São Paulo Senate race for first place remains highly competitive ahead of the October 4 vote, with recent mid-August polling from Paraná Pesquisas placing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, and Guilherme Derrite within the margin of error in a tight three-way contest. Voter fragmentation across ideological lines, combined with strong name recognition for the former ministers and the Progressive Party lawmaker, sustains the narrow spreads reflected in current trader pricing. Factors such as late consolidation of left- or right-leaning support, additional survey releases, or shifts in rejection rates could widen gaps, while the two-seat structure and single-round format keep outcomes sensitive to turnout and preference flows among remaining contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$26,722End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo Senate race for first place remains highly competitive ahead of the October 4 vote, with recent mid-August polling from Paraná Pesquisas placing Simone Tebet, Marina Silva, and Guilherme Derrite within the margin of error in a tight three-way contest. Voter fragmentation across ideological lines, combined with strong name recognition for the former ministers and the Progressive Party lawmaker, sustains the narrow spreads reflected in current trader pricing. Factors such as late consolidation of left- or right-leaning support, additional survey releases, or shifts in rejection rates could widen gaps, while the two-seat structure and single-round format keep outcomes sensitive to turnout and preference flows among remaining contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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