Lula's incumbency advantage and consistent national polling lead in the high 30s to low 40s percent position him as the strong favorite to finish first in Minas Gerais on October 4, reflected in the 87.5% trader consensus. The state's 16.8 million voters delivered his narrow 2022 margin, and recent federal debt-relief expansions plus fuel subsidies have aimed to bolster support amid economic pressures. Flávio Bolsonaro, at 13%, consolidates right-wing backing as the Liberal Party nominee but trails due to family legal issues and limited crossover appeal. Other contenders including Romeu Zema (0.5%), Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain marginal at 0.1% levels, consistent with historical first-round consolidation patterns and the absence of major late shifts in state-level surveys. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks could still influence turnout among independents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 88%
Flavio Bolsonaro 13.0%
Zema <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,424 Vol.
$12,424 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
88%
Flavio Bolsonaro
13%
Zema
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 88%
Flavio Bolsonaro 13.0%
Zema <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,424 Vol.
$12,424 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,900 Vol.
88%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,842 Vol.
13%
Zema
$1,002 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$858 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$531 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$525 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$485 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$484 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$473 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$491 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$649 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$576 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's incumbency advantage and consistent national polling lead in the high 30s to low 40s percent position him as the strong favorite to finish first in Minas Gerais on October 4, reflected in the 87.5% trader consensus. The state's 16.8 million voters delivered his narrow 2022 margin, and recent federal debt-relief expansions plus fuel subsidies have aimed to bolster support amid economic pressures. Flávio Bolsonaro, at 13%, consolidates right-wing backing as the Liberal Party nominee but trails due to family legal issues and limited crossover appeal. Other contenders including Romeu Zema (0.5%), Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain marginal at 0.1% levels, consistent with historical first-round consolidation patterns and the absence of major late shifts in state-level surveys. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks could still influence turnout among independents.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$12,424End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's incumbency advantage and consistent national polling lead in the high 30s to low 40s percent position him as the strong favorite to finish first in Minas Gerais on October 4, reflected in the 87.5% trader consensus. The state's 16.8 million voters delivered his narrow 2022 margin, and recent federal debt-relief expansions plus fuel subsidies have aimed to bolster support amid economic pressures. Flávio Bolsonaro, at 13%, consolidates right-wing backing as the Liberal Party nominee but trails due to family legal issues and limited crossover appeal. Other contenders including Romeu Zema (0.5%), Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain marginal at 0.1% levels, consistent with historical first-round consolidation patterns and the absence of major late shifts in state-level surveys. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks could still influence turnout among independents.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,424End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's incumbency advantage and consistent national polling lead in the high 30s to low 40s percent position him as the strong favorite to finish first in Minas Gerais on October 4, reflected in the 87.5% trader consensus. The state's 16.8 million voters delivered his narrow 2022 margin, and recent federal debt-relief expansions plus fuel subsidies have aimed to bolster support amid economic pressures. Flávio Bolsonaro, at 13%, consolidates right-wing backing as the Liberal Party nominee but trails due to family legal issues and limited crossover appeal. Other contenders including Romeu Zema (0.5%), Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos remain marginal at 0.1% levels, consistent with historical first-round consolidation patterns and the absence of major late shifts in state-level surveys. Upcoming debates and final campaign weeks could still influence turnout among independents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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