Flávio Bolsonaro’s decision to skip the first Band presidential debate on August 23, 2026, along with his stated strategy of limiting appearances to events featuring his main rivals, has shaped trader views. The Liberal Party nominee, confirmed in July and polling within a few points of incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of the October 4 first round, explained his absence by noting that other participants “are not my adversaries.” Allies have indicated he intends to appear only in head-to-head formats with Lula, leaving later debates such as the scheduled September 14 event uncertain. This selective approach, amid a tight race and ongoing campaign positioning, underpins the current 61% implied probability that he will not participate in any debate before the first round.