Deltan Dallagnol leads recent polling for first place in Paraná’s October 4 Senate race, with the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey (August 13–16) placing him at 34 percent ahead of Alexandre Curi at 29.6 percent, Gleisi Hoffmann at 28.1 percent, and Filipe Barros at 26 percent. Traders assign Dallagnol the highest implied probability at 39.5 percent, followed by Curi at 35 percent, reflecting the crowded field and statistical ties among center-right and left-leaning contenders. Gleisi’s elevated rejection ratings near 42 percent limit her consolidation potential despite PT infrastructure, while Dallagnol’s anti-corruption profile and Novo affiliation benefit from Sergio Moro’s parallel gubernatorial bid. Upcoming polls before the single-round election and any eligibility rulings remain key variables that could shift the tight consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedDeltan Dallagnol 40%
Alexandre Curi 27%
Filipe Barros 16%
Gleisi 5.4%
$16,433 Vol.
$16,433 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Deltan Dallagnol
40%
Alexandre Curi
35%
Filipe Barros
16%
Gleisi
20%
Cristina Reis Graeml
5%
Karen Guerreiro
3%
Dr. Rosinha
3%
Joaquim do MLB
2%
Marcelo Marcelino
2%
Deltan Dallagnol 40%
Alexandre Curi 27%
Filipe Barros 16%
Gleisi 5.4%
$16,433 Vol.
$16,433 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Deltan Dallagnol
$10,969 Vol.
40%
Alexandre Curi
$2,011 Vol.
35%
Filipe Barros
$1,825 Vol.
16%
Gleisi
$321 Vol.
20%
Cristina Reis Graeml
$194 Vol.
5%
Karen Guerreiro
$329 Vol.
3%
Dr. Rosinha
$188 Vol.
3%
Joaquim do MLB
$219 Vol.
2%
Marcelo Marcelino
$377 Vol.
2%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Deltan Dallagnol leads recent polling for first place in Paraná’s October 4 Senate race, with the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey (August 13–16) placing him at 34 percent ahead of Alexandre Curi at 29.6 percent, Gleisi Hoffmann at 28.1 percent, and Filipe Barros at 26 percent. Traders assign Dallagnol the highest implied probability at 39.5 percent, followed by Curi at 35 percent, reflecting the crowded field and statistical ties among center-right and left-leaning contenders. Gleisi’s elevated rejection ratings near 42 percent limit her consolidation potential despite PT infrastructure, while Dallagnol’s anti-corruption profile and Novo affiliation benefit from Sergio Moro’s parallel gubernatorial bid. Upcoming polls before the single-round election and any eligibility rulings remain key variables that could shift the tight consensus.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ET
Volume
$16,433End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Deltan Dallagnol leads recent polling for first place in Paraná’s October 4 Senate race, with the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey (August 13–16) placing him at 34 percent ahead of Alexandre Curi at 29.6 percent, Gleisi Hoffmann at 28.1 percent, and Filipe Barros at 26 percent. Traders assign Dallagnol the highest implied probability at 39.5 percent, followed by Curi at 35 percent, reflecting the crowded field and statistical ties among center-right and left-leaning contenders. Gleisi’s elevated rejection ratings near 42 percent limit her consolidation potential despite PT infrastructure, while Dallagnol’s anti-corruption profile and Novo affiliation benefit from Sergio Moro’s parallel gubernatorial bid. Upcoming polls before the single-round election and any eligibility rulings remain key variables that could shift the tight consensus.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Paraná is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$16,433End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Deltan Dallagnol leads recent polling for first place in Paraná’s October 4 Senate race, with the latest Paraná Pesquisas survey (August 13–16) placing him at 34 percent ahead of Alexandre Curi at 29.6 percent, Gleisi Hoffmann at 28.1 percent, and Filipe Barros at 26 percent. Traders assign Dallagnol the highest implied probability at 39.5 percent, followed by Curi at 35 percent, reflecting the crowded field and statistical ties among center-right and left-leaning contenders. Gleisi’s elevated rejection ratings near 42 percent limit her consolidation potential despite PT infrastructure, while Dallagnol’s anti-corruption profile and Novo affiliation benefit from Sergio Moro’s parallel gubernatorial bid. Upcoming polls before the single-round election and any eligibility rulings remain key variables that could shift the tight consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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