Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina polling for the October 2026 first round, with the latest Quaest survey showing him at 45% overall (56% of valid votes) against Lula at 20%. This positioning stems from the state's conservative voter base in the South region, where PL-aligned candidates have historically performed strongly, combined with Bolsonaro's nomination as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and limited inroads by competitors like Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. Traders price the outcome at 97% based on repeated surveys confirming double-digit margins. Shifts could occur through last-minute vote fragmentation among right-leaning options or turnout changes among undecided voters, though the gap has held steady across multiple recent polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Flavio Bolsonaro 96.9%
Lula 1.3%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 96.9%
Lula 1.3%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,852 Vol.
97%
Lula
$280 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$270 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$370 Vol.
1%
Samara
$370 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$270 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$270 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$270 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$270 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$270 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$270 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$270 Vol.
1%
Zema
$270 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina polling for the October 2026 first round, with the latest Quaest survey showing him at 45% overall (56% of valid votes) against Lula at 20%. This positioning stems from the state's conservative voter base in the South region, where PL-aligned candidates have historically performed strongly, combined with Bolsonaro's nomination as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and limited inroads by competitors like Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. Traders price the outcome at 97% based on repeated surveys confirming double-digit margins. Shifts could occur through last-minute vote fragmentation among right-leaning options or turnout changes among undecided voters, though the gap has held steady across multiple recent polls.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$5,304End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina polling for the October 2026 first round, with the latest Quaest survey showing him at 45% overall (56% of valid votes) against Lula at 20%. This positioning stems from the state's conservative voter base in the South region, where PL-aligned candidates have historically performed strongly, combined with Bolsonaro's nomination as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and limited inroads by competitors like Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. Traders price the outcome at 97% based on repeated surveys confirming double-digit margins. Shifts could occur through last-minute vote fragmentation among right-leaning options or turnout changes among undecided voters, though the gap has held steady across multiple recent polls.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,304End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina polling for the October 2026 first round, with the latest Quaest survey showing him at 45% overall (56% of valid votes) against Lula at 20%. This positioning stems from the state's conservative voter base in the South region, where PL-aligned candidates have historically performed strongly, combined with Bolsonaro's nomination as the Liberal Party standard-bearer and limited inroads by competitors like Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. Traders price the outcome at 97% based on repeated surveys confirming double-digit margins. Shifts could occur through last-minute vote fragmentation among right-leaning options or turnout changes among undecided voters, though the gap has held steady across multiple recent polls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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