Recent mid-August polls, including Datafolha, show a fragmented São Paulo Senate field ahead of the October 4 vote, with Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, André do Prado, and Guilherme Derrite locked in technical ties near the top amid 14–35% undecided or blank responses. This keeps second-place odds tightly clustered, as voter consolidation behind the Haddad-aligned center-left ticket or right-leaning state alliances could reorder the ranking without a clear frontrunner emerging. High undecided shares and varying survey methodologies amplify uncertainty in the multi-candidate contest for the two seats, where small shifts in turnout or late endorsements may decide who trails the leader.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAndré do Prado 34.9%
Marina Silva 29%
Simone Tebet 20%
Guilherme Derrite 19%
$23,559 Vol.
$23,559 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
André do Prado
35%
Marina Silva
29%
Simone Tebet
20%
Guilherme Derrite
19%
Salles
4%
Ednelson Cesaretti
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
<1%
Marcio Alves
<1%
Petter Maahs
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
<1%
William Teixeira
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
<1%
Maíra de Souza
<1%
Soninha Francine
<1%
André do Prado 34.9%
Marina Silva 29%
Simone Tebet 20%
Guilherme Derrite 19%
$23,559 Vol.
$23,559 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
André do Prado
$2,338 Vol.
35%
Marina Silva
$5,233 Vol.
29%
Simone Tebet
$4,094 Vol.
20%
Guilherme Derrite
$3,679 Vol.
19%
Salles
$2,971 Vol.
4%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$580 Vol.
<1%
Geraldo Rufino
$528 Vol.
<1%
Marcio Alves
$408 Vol.
<1%
Petter Maahs
$757 Vol.
<1%
Weller Gonçalves
$813 Vol.
<1%
William Teixeira
$686 Vol.
<1%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$457 Vol.
<1%
Maíra de Souza
$406 Vol.
<1%
Soninha Francine
$608 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent mid-August polls, including Datafolha, show a fragmented São Paulo Senate field ahead of the October 4 vote, with Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, André do Prado, and Guilherme Derrite locked in technical ties near the top amid 14–35% undecided or blank responses. This keeps second-place odds tightly clustered, as voter consolidation behind the Haddad-aligned center-left ticket or right-leaning state alliances could reorder the ranking without a clear frontrunner emerging. High undecided shares and varying survey methodologies amplify uncertainty in the multi-candidate contest for the two seats, where small shifts in turnout or late endorsements may decide who trails the leader.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ET
Volume
$23,559End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent mid-August polls, including Datafolha, show a fragmented São Paulo Senate field ahead of the October 4 vote, with Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, André do Prado, and Guilherme Derrite locked in technical ties near the top amid 14–35% undecided or blank responses. This keeps second-place odds tightly clustered, as voter consolidation behind the Haddad-aligned center-left ticket or right-leaning state alliances could reorder the ranking without a clear frontrunner emerging. High undecided shares and varying survey methodologies amplify uncertainty in the multi-candidate contest for the two seats, where small shifts in turnout or late endorsements may decide who trails the leader.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,559End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent mid-August polls, including Datafolha, show a fragmented São Paulo Senate field ahead of the October 4 vote, with Marina Silva, Simone Tebet, André do Prado, and Guilherme Derrite locked in technical ties near the top amid 14–35% undecided or blank responses. This keeps second-place odds tightly clustered, as voter consolidation behind the Haddad-aligned center-left ticket or right-leaning state alliances could reorder the ranking without a clear frontrunner emerging. High undecided shares and varying survey methodologies amplify uncertainty in the multi-candidate contest for the two seats, where small shifts in turnout or late endorsements may decide who trails the leader.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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