Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro holding a clear lead for one Federal District Senate seat on October 4, 2026, at 19-25%, while Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay remain clustered between 11-17% amid 50-60% undecided or blank responses. This fragmentation, combined with formal party conventions confirming multiple candidacies and overlapping right-wing support bases between PL candidates, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Trader consensus currently assigns Leila the edge, reflecting her incumbency advantage and consistent second-place positioning, though late shifts in undecided voters or turnout among center-right blocs could alter the ordering before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLeila do Vôlei 48%
Michelle Bolsonaro 24.6%
Bia Kicis 20%
Erika Kokay 10%
$24,817 Vol.
$24,817 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
48%
Michelle Bolsonaro
25%
Bia Kicis
20%
Erika Kokay
10%
David Horn
<1%
Avenir Rosa
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
<1%
Tiago
<1%
Marley
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
<1%
Zanata
<1%
Leila do Vôlei 48%
Michelle Bolsonaro 24.6%
Bia Kicis 20%
Erika Kokay 10%
$24,817 Vol.
$24,817 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Leila do Vôlei
$5,873 Vol.
48%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$3,735 Vol.
25%
Bia Kicis
$6,794 Vol.
20%
Erika Kokay
$2,838 Vol.
10%
David Horn
$1,739 Vol.
<1%
Avenir Rosa
$437 Vol.
<1%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$381 Vol.
<1%
Professor Guilherme Amorim
$878 Vol.
<1%
Tiago
$546 Vol.
<1%
Marley
$392 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Fonseca
$407 Vol.
<1%
Sebastião Coelho
$381 Vol.
<1%
Zanata
$417 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro holding a clear lead for one Federal District Senate seat on October 4, 2026, at 19-25%, while Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay remain clustered between 11-17% amid 50-60% undecided or blank responses. This fragmentation, combined with formal party conventions confirming multiple candidacies and overlapping right-wing support bases between PL candidates, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Trader consensus currently assigns Leila the edge, reflecting her incumbency advantage and consistent second-place positioning, though late shifts in undecided voters or turnout among center-right blocs could alter the ordering before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
Volume
$24,817End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro holding a clear lead for one Federal District Senate seat on October 4, 2026, at 19-25%, while Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay remain clustered between 11-17% amid 50-60% undecided or blank responses. This fragmentation, combined with formal party conventions confirming multiple candidacies and overlapping right-wing support bases between PL candidates, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Trader consensus currently assigns Leila the edge, reflecting her incumbency advantage and consistent second-place positioning, though late shifts in undecided voters or turnout among center-right blocs could alter the ordering before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$24,817End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data shows Michelle Bolsonaro holding a clear lead for one Federal District Senate seat on October 4, 2026, at 19-25%, while Leila do Vôlei, Bia Kicis, and Erika Kokay remain clustered between 11-17% amid 50-60% undecided or blank responses. This fragmentation, combined with formal party conventions confirming multiple candidacies and overlapping right-wing support bases between PL candidates, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Trader consensus currently assigns Leila the edge, reflecting her incumbency advantage and consistent second-place positioning, though late shifts in undecided voters or turnout among center-right blocs could alter the ordering before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions