Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for first place in Goiás at 68% implied probability, driven by his position as the Liberal Party nominee and primary conservative standard-bearer with established Bolsonarista support networks across the center-west agribusiness region ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent state-level surveys, including the late-August Quaest poll, show Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) ahead or tied locally at 32% thanks to his two terms as governor and high approval ratings, with Flavio at 27% and Lula at 20%, though national dynamics and party structures appear to underpin market pricing over purely local results. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single digits or less in the same data. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in alliances could still influence final vote shares.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Goiás
Flavio Bolsonaro 69%
Ronaldo Caiado 25%
Lula 2.3%
Clariana Barao <1%
$48,762 Vol.
$48,762 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
69%
Ronaldo Caiado
25%
Lula
2%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 69%
Ronaldo Caiado 25%
Lula 2.3%
Clariana Barao <1%
$48,762 Vol.
$48,762 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$23,493 Vol.
69%
Ronaldo Caiado
$13,130 Vol.
25%
Lula
$6,384 Vol.
2%
Clariana Barao
$469 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$458 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$494 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$519 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,480 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$570 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$385 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$398 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$537 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$444 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for first place in Goiás at 68% implied probability, driven by his position as the Liberal Party nominee and primary conservative standard-bearer with established Bolsonarista support networks across the center-west agribusiness region ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent state-level surveys, including the late-August Quaest poll, show Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) ahead or tied locally at 32% thanks to his two terms as governor and high approval ratings, with Flavio at 27% and Lula at 20%, though national dynamics and party structures appear to underpin market pricing over purely local results. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single digits or less in the same data. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in alliances could still influence final vote shares.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$48,762End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for first place in Goiás at 68% implied probability, driven by his position as the Liberal Party nominee and primary conservative standard-bearer with established Bolsonarista support networks across the center-west agribusiness region ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent state-level surveys, including the late-August Quaest poll, show Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) ahead or tied locally at 32% thanks to his two terms as governor and high approval ratings, with Flavio at 27% and Lula at 20%, though national dynamics and party structures appear to underpin market pricing over purely local results. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single digits or less in the same data. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in alliances could still influence final vote shares.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Goiás, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Goiás.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Goiás. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$48,762End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro leads trader consensus for first place in Goiás at 68% implied probability, driven by his position as the Liberal Party nominee and primary conservative standard-bearer with established Bolsonarista support networks across the center-west agribusiness region ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent state-level surveys, including the late-August Quaest poll, show Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) ahead or tied locally at 32% thanks to his two terms as governor and high approval ratings, with Flavio at 27% and Lula at 20%, though national dynamics and party structures appear to underpin market pricing over purely local results. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register low single digits or less in the same data. Upcoming campaign events and any shifts in alliances could still influence final vote shares.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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