Recent polling shows Québec Solidaire support holding near 8–11% province-wide, with vote concentration in Montreal ridings and select Capitale-Nationale districts creating the main path to seats. Incumbent MNAs in Gouin, Mercier and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques remain projected as safe or likely holds, while toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Rosemont and Jean-Lesage hinge on local turnout and PQ competition. Four of eleven sitting QS members have opted not to run, new co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal faces a fragmented left vote, and the October 5 election timeline leaves limited runway for gains. Traders weigh these urban strongholds against broader weakness, producing near-even odds on whether any seat is retained. Late-campaign shifts in francophone or Montreal turnout, or unexpected PQ consolidation in multi-way races, could move the balance either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated46% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
46% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows Québec Solidaire support holding near 8–11% province-wide, with vote concentration in Montreal ridings and select Capitale-Nationale districts creating the main path to seats. Incumbent MNAs in Gouin, Mercier and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques remain projected as safe or likely holds, while toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Rosemont and Jean-Lesage hinge on local turnout and PQ competition. Four of eleven sitting QS members have opted not to run, new co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal faces a fragmented left vote, and the October 5 election timeline leaves limited runway for gains. Traders weigh these urban strongholds against broader weakness, producing near-even odds on whether any seat is retained. Late-campaign shifts in francophone or Montreal turnout, or unexpected PQ consolidation in multi-way races, could move the balance either direction.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$1End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows Québec Solidaire support holding near 8–11% province-wide, with vote concentration in Montreal ridings and select Capitale-Nationale districts creating the main path to seats. Incumbent MNAs in Gouin, Mercier and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques remain projected as safe or likely holds, while toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Rosemont and Jean-Lesage hinge on local turnout and PQ competition. Four of eleven sitting QS members have opted not to run, new co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal faces a fragmented left vote, and the October 5 election timeline leaves limited runway for gains. Traders weigh these urban strongholds against broader weakness, producing near-even odds on whether any seat is retained. Late-campaign shifts in francophone or Montreal turnout, or unexpected PQ consolidation in multi-way races, could move the balance either direction.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$1End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling shows Québec Solidaire support holding near 8–11% province-wide, with vote concentration in Montreal ridings and select Capitale-Nationale districts creating the main path to seats. Incumbent MNAs in Gouin, Mercier and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques remain projected as safe or likely holds, while toss-ups in Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Rosemont and Jean-Lesage hinge on local turnout and PQ competition. Four of eleven sitting QS members have opted not to run, new co-spokesperson Ruba Ghazal faces a fragmented left vote, and the October 5 election timeline leaves limited runway for gains. Traders weigh these urban strongholds against broader weakness, producing near-even odds on whether any seat is retained. Late-campaign shifts in francophone or Montreal turnout, or unexpected PQ consolidation in multi-way races, could move the balance either direction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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