Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading at around 30 percent, with the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives clustered near 20-23 percent amid a fragmented francophone vote and multi-party regional races. The October 5 election features a new CAQ leader in Christine Fréchette, who has distanced the party from prior incumbency fatigue while gaining some ground on economic stability and U.S. tariff concerns, yet the party faces tight three-way contests in areas like Quebec City and the 450 belt. Seat projections reflect high uncertainty, with the CAQ range spanning single digits to the low twenties depending on whether it consolidates federalist support or loses close ridings to the PQ and Conservatives. This distribution of implied probabilities aligns with the current lack of a dominant outcome, as small shifts in turnout or regional swings could materially alter the final seat tally before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
<5 21%
10-14 17%
20-24 17%
25-29 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
21%
5-9
11%
10-14
17%
15-19
15%
20-24
17%
25-29
15%
30+
13%
<5 21%
10-14 17%
20-24 17%
25-29 15%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$75 Vol.
21%
5-9
$139 Vol.
11%
10-14
$57 Vol.
17%
15-19
$56 Vol.
15%
20-24
$16 Vol.
17%
25-29
$16 Vol.
15%
30+
$16 Vol.
13%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading at around 30 percent, with the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives clustered near 20-23 percent amid a fragmented francophone vote and multi-party regional races. The October 5 election features a new CAQ leader in Christine Fréchette, who has distanced the party from prior incumbency fatigue while gaining some ground on economic stability and U.S. tariff concerns, yet the party faces tight three-way contests in areas like Quebec City and the 450 belt. Seat projections reflect high uncertainty, with the CAQ range spanning single digits to the low twenties depending on whether it consolidates federalist support or loses close ridings to the PQ and Conservatives. This distribution of implied probabilities aligns with the current lack of a dominant outcome, as small shifts in turnout or regional swings could materially alter the final seat tally before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$373End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading at around 30 percent, with the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives clustered near 20-23 percent amid a fragmented francophone vote and multi-party regional races. The October 5 election features a new CAQ leader in Christine Fréchette, who has distanced the party from prior incumbency fatigue while gaining some ground on economic stability and U.S. tariff concerns, yet the party faces tight three-way contests in areas like Quebec City and the 450 belt. Seat projections reflect high uncertainty, with the CAQ range spanning single digits to the low twenties depending on whether it consolidates federalist support or loses close ridings to the PQ and Conservatives. This distribution of implied probabilities aligns with the current lack of a dominant outcome, as small shifts in turnout or regional swings could materially alter the final seat tally before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$373End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois leading at around 30 percent, with the CAQ, Liberals, and Conservatives clustered near 20-23 percent amid a fragmented francophone vote and multi-party regional races. The October 5 election features a new CAQ leader in Christine Fréchette, who has distanced the party from prior incumbency fatigue while gaining some ground on economic stability and U.S. tariff concerns, yet the party faces tight three-way contests in areas like Quebec City and the 450 belt. Seat projections reflect high uncertainty, with the CAQ range spanning single digits to the low twenties depending on whether it consolidates federalist support or loses close ridings to the PQ and Conservatives. This distribution of implied probabilities aligns with the current lack of a dominant outcome, as small shifts in turnout or regional swings could materially alter the final seat tally before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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