The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead in recent Quebec polling averages around 30 percent, driven by strong francophone support that translates efficiently into seats under the province’s first-past-the-post system, giving traders an implied 70 percent probability it forms the next government after the October 5 election. The federalist vote remains split between the Liberals under new leader Charles Milliard and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, now headed by Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s departure, while smaller parties including the Conservatives and Québec solidaire draw single-digit shares. High levels of undecided voters near 49 percent, combined with campaign-start volatility and debates over sovereignty referendums and U.S. trade relations, sustain uncertainty even as the PQ’s structural advantages in key ridings anchor current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 70%
PLQ 16%
CAQ 13%
PCQ <1%
$808,532 Vol.
$808,532 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
70%
PLQ
16%
CAQ
13%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 70%
PLQ 16%
CAQ 13%
PCQ <1%
$808,532 Vol.
$808,532 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
PQ
$93,024 Vol.
70%
PLQ
$107,567 Vol.
16%
CAQ
$115,391 Vol.
13%
PCQ
$230,542 Vol.
<1%
QS
$104,486 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead in recent Quebec polling averages around 30 percent, driven by strong francophone support that translates efficiently into seats under the province’s first-past-the-post system, giving traders an implied 70 percent probability it forms the next government after the October 5 election. The federalist vote remains split between the Liberals under new leader Charles Milliard and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, now headed by Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s departure, while smaller parties including the Conservatives and Québec solidaire draw single-digit shares. High levels of undecided voters near 49 percent, combined with campaign-start volatility and debates over sovereignty referendums and U.S. trade relations, sustain uncertainty even as the PQ’s structural advantages in key ridings anchor current market pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$808,532End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead in recent Quebec polling averages around 30 percent, driven by strong francophone support that translates efficiently into seats under the province’s first-past-the-post system, giving traders an implied 70 percent probability it forms the next government after the October 5 election. The federalist vote remains split between the Liberals under new leader Charles Milliard and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, now headed by Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s departure, while smaller parties including the Conservatives and Québec solidaire draw single-digit shares. High levels of undecided voters near 49 percent, combined with campaign-start volatility and debates over sovereignty referendums and U.S. trade relations, sustain uncertainty even as the PQ’s structural advantages in key ridings anchor current market pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$808,532End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois holds a consistent lead in recent Quebec polling averages around 30 percent, driven by strong francophone support that translates efficiently into seats under the province’s first-past-the-post system, giving traders an implied 70 percent probability it forms the next government after the October 5 election. The federalist vote remains split between the Liberals under new leader Charles Milliard and the governing Coalition Avenir Québec, now headed by Premier Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s departure, while smaller parties including the Conservatives and Québec solidaire draw single-digit shares. High levels of undecided voters near 49 percent, combined with campaign-start volatility and debates over sovereignty referendums and U.S. trade relations, sustain uncertainty even as the PQ’s structural advantages in key ridings anchor current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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