Recent polling and seat models project the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) in the mid-to-high 30s, with 36–43 seats the most probable range ahead of the October 5 election. The party maintains a strong lead on the Island of Montreal among anglophone and allophone voters but registers only about 14% support among francophones province-wide, restricting its reach in the 450 belt, Quebec City region, and rural ridings. Federalist vote fragmentation with the CAQ and Conservatives further caps PLQ efficiency, while regional three-way contests and late-campaign shifts in undecided voters keep the 36–39 and 40–43 bins nearly even in trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated32-35 28%
36-39 27%
40-43 27%
<28 26%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<28
26%
28-31
23%
32-35
28%
36-39
27%
40-43
27%
44+
24%
32-35 28%
36-39 27%
40-43 27%
<28 26%
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
<28
$0 Vol.
26%
28-31
$0 Vol.
23%
32-35
$0 Vol.
28%
36-39
$0 Vol.
27%
40-43
$0 Vol.
27%
44+
$104 Vol.
24%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling and seat models project the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) in the mid-to-high 30s, with 36–43 seats the most probable range ahead of the October 5 election. The party maintains a strong lead on the Island of Montreal among anglophone and allophone voters but registers only about 14% support among francophones province-wide, restricting its reach in the 450 belt, Quebec City region, and rural ridings. Federalist vote fragmentation with the CAQ and Conservatives further caps PLQ efficiency, while regional three-way contests and late-campaign shifts in undecided voters keep the 36–39 and 40–43 bins nearly even in trader pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$104End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling and seat models project the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) in the mid-to-high 30s, with 36–43 seats the most probable range ahead of the October 5 election. The party maintains a strong lead on the Island of Montreal among anglophone and allophone voters but registers only about 14% support among francophones province-wide, restricting its reach in the 450 belt, Quebec City region, and rural ridings. Federalist vote fragmentation with the CAQ and Conservatives further caps PLQ efficiency, while regional three-way contests and late-campaign shifts in undecided voters keep the 36–39 and 40–43 bins nearly even in trader pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$104End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and seat models project the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) in the mid-to-high 30s, with 36–43 seats the most probable range ahead of the October 5 election. The party maintains a strong lead on the Island of Montreal among anglophone and allophone voters but registers only about 14% support among francophones province-wide, restricting its reach in the 450 belt, Quebec City region, and rural ridings. Federalist vote fragmentation with the CAQ and Conservatives further caps PLQ efficiency, while regional three-way contests and late-campaign shifts in undecided voters keep the 36–39 and 40–43 bins nearly even in trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions