Örebropartiet, a local populist party led by Markus Allard, seeks its first Riksdag seats in the September 13, 2026, election primarily through the 12% constituency threshold in Örebro län rather than the national 4% barrier. Recent national polls from Indikator Opinion, Ipsos, and others place “other parties” at roughly 2%, with Örebropartiet the most cited but lacking consistent traction beyond its Örebro base. Local results from 2022 (7.92% municipal, 4.46% regional) and some area surveys show stronger support, yet political analysts note no historical precedent for the constituency route and highlight the challenge of scaling votes across the full valkrets in the brief remaining campaign window. Trader consensus on “No” at 64.5% reflects these barriers alongside the dominance of established blocs in current polling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated43% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
43% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Örebropartiet, a local populist party led by Markus Allard, seeks its first Riksdag seats in the September 13, 2026, election primarily through the 12% constituency threshold in Örebro län rather than the national 4% barrier. Recent national polls from Indikator Opinion, Ipsos, and others place “other parties” at roughly 2%, with Örebropartiet the most cited but lacking consistent traction beyond its Örebro base. Local results from 2022 (7.92% municipal, 4.46% regional) and some area surveys show stronger support, yet political analysts note no historical precedent for the constituency route and highlight the challenge of scaling votes across the full valkrets in the brief remaining campaign window. Trader consensus on “No” at 64.5% reflects these barriers alongside the dominance of established blocs in current polling.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Volume
$3,313End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Örebropartiet, a local populist party led by Markus Allard, seeks its first Riksdag seats in the September 13, 2026, election primarily through the 12% constituency threshold in Örebro län rather than the national 4% barrier. Recent national polls from Indikator Opinion, Ipsos, and others place “other parties” at roughly 2%, with Örebropartiet the most cited but lacking consistent traction beyond its Örebro base. Local results from 2022 (7.92% municipal, 4.46% regional) and some area surveys show stronger support, yet political analysts note no historical precedent for the constituency route and highlight the challenge of scaling votes across the full valkrets in the brief remaining campaign window. Trader consensus on “No” at 64.5% reflects these barriers alongside the dominance of established blocs in current polling.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Örebropartiet receives at least one seat in the Swedish Riksdag as a result of the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to Örebropartiet. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If Örebropartiet formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Örebropartiet in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$3,313End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 4:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Örebropartiet, a local populist party led by Markus Allard, seeks its first Riksdag seats in the September 13, 2026, election primarily through the 12% constituency threshold in Örebro län rather than the national 4% barrier. Recent national polls from Indikator Opinion, Ipsos, and others place “other parties” at roughly 2%, with Örebropartiet the most cited but lacking consistent traction beyond its Örebro base. Local results from 2022 (7.92% municipal, 4.46% regional) and some area surveys show stronger support, yet political analysts note no historical precedent for the constituency route and highlight the challenge of scaling votes across the full valkrets in the brief remaining campaign window. Trader consensus on “No” at 64.5% reflects these barriers alongside the dominance of established blocs in current polling.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions