Recent polls from Maskína and Gallup show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks splitting Icelandic voters nearly evenly, with “Yes” leads shrinking to 2–3 points in the final surveys amid high undecided shares. Fisheries sovereignty remains the dominant cleavage, as opponents highlight risks to quota control and coastal jobs while supporters cite currency stability and broader trade access amid external pressures such as U.S. tariffs. The advisory nature of the ballot—requiring a second vote on any eventual treaty—further compresses expected margins, and historical precedent of Iceland’s 2013 suspension reinforces trader caution about turnout swings or last-minute shifts. These factors sustain tight probabilities across small victory bands and elevate “Other” as the market reflects genuine uncertainty over whether any decisive separation will emerge on election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo <3% 40%
Yes <3% 40%
Yes 3–6% 36%
Yes 9–12% 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
24%
Yes 12–15%
9%
Yes 9–12%
24%
Yes 6–9%
24%
Yes 3–6%
36%
Yes <3%
40%
No <3%
40%
No 3–6%
24%
No 6–9%
24%
No 9–12%
24%
No 12–15%
23%
No 15%+
11%
No <3% 40%
Yes <3% 40%
Yes 3–6% 36%
Yes 9–12% 24%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$0 Vol.
24%
Yes 12–15%
$63 Vol.
9%
Yes 9–12%
$0 Vol.
24%
Yes 6–9%
$0 Vol.
24%
Yes 3–6%
$0 Vol.
36%
Yes <3%
$0 Vol.
40%
No <3%
$0 Vol.
40%
No 3–6%
$0 Vol.
24%
No 6–9%
$0 Vol.
24%
No 9–12%
$0 Vol.
24%
No 12–15%
$0 Vol.
23%
No 15%+
$0 Vol.
11%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls from Maskína and Gallup show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks splitting Icelandic voters nearly evenly, with “Yes” leads shrinking to 2–3 points in the final surveys amid high undecided shares. Fisheries sovereignty remains the dominant cleavage, as opponents highlight risks to quota control and coastal jobs while supporters cite currency stability and broader trade access amid external pressures such as U.S. tariffs. The advisory nature of the ballot—requiring a second vote on any eventual treaty—further compresses expected margins, and historical precedent of Iceland’s 2013 suspension reinforces trader caution about turnout swings or last-minute shifts. These factors sustain tight probabilities across small victory bands and elevate “Other” as the market reflects genuine uncertainty over whether any decisive separation will emerge on election night.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$63End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls from Maskína and Gallup show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks splitting Icelandic voters nearly evenly, with “Yes” leads shrinking to 2–3 points in the final surveys amid high undecided shares. Fisheries sovereignty remains the dominant cleavage, as opponents highlight risks to quota control and coastal jobs while supporters cite currency stability and broader trade access amid external pressures such as U.S. tariffs. The advisory nature of the ballot—requiring a second vote on any eventual treaty—further compresses expected margins, and historical precedent of Iceland’s 2013 suspension reinforces trader caution about turnout swings or last-minute shifts. These factors sustain tight probabilities across small victory bands and elevate “Other” as the market reflects genuine uncertainty over whether any decisive separation will emerge on election night.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$63End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Maskína and Gallup show the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks splitting Icelandic voters nearly evenly, with “Yes” leads shrinking to 2–3 points in the final surveys amid high undecided shares. Fisheries sovereignty remains the dominant cleavage, as opponents highlight risks to quota control and coastal jobs while supporters cite currency stability and broader trade access amid external pressures such as U.S. tariffs. The advisory nature of the ballot—requiring a second vote on any eventual treaty—further compresses expected margins, and historical precedent of Iceland’s 2013 suspension reinforces trader caution about turnout swings or last-minute shifts. These factors sustain tight probabilities across small victory bands and elevate “Other” as the market reflects genuine uncertainty over whether any decisive separation will emerge on election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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