Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly 5.4 points in Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary, with 80 percent of precincts reporting Peltola at 48.1 percent and Sullivan at 42.7 percent. Late-counted absentee ballots through August 28 will determine the precise margin, keeping trader focus on whether the final spread settles in the 3–6 percent or 6–9 percent range. Peltola’s stronger-than-expected performance and superior fundraising reflect her appeal among independents and Alaska Natives, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency and Republican base support in a state that has trended conservative in recent cycles. The narrow gap and remaining ballots sustain uncertainty around the exact victory margin ahead of the November general election under ranked-choice voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeltola 3–6% 19%
Peltola 15%+ <1%
Peltola 12–15% <1%
Peltola <3% <1%
$20,579 Vol.
$20,579 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
<1%
Peltola 12–15%
<1%
Peltola 9–12%
39%
Peltola 6–9%
56%
Peltola 3–6%
19%
Peltola <3%
<1%
Sullivan <3%
<1%
Sullivan 3–6%
<1%
Sullivan 6–9%
<1%
Sullivan 9–12%
<1%
Sullivan 12%+
<1%
Peltola 3–6% 19%
Peltola 15%+ <1%
Peltola 12–15% <1%
Peltola <3% <1%
$20,579 Vol.
$20,579 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
$512 Vol.
<1%
Peltola 12–15%
$525 Vol.
<1%
Peltola 9–12%
$1,043 Vol.
39%
Peltola 6–9%
$1,961 Vol.
56%
Peltola 3–6%
$11,917 Vol.
19%
Peltola <3%
$1,313 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan <3%
$684 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 3–6%
$1,137 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 6–9%
$657 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 9–12%
$387 Vol.
<1%
Sullivan 12%+
$442 Vol.
<1%
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly 5.4 points in Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary, with 80 percent of precincts reporting Peltola at 48.1 percent and Sullivan at 42.7 percent. Late-counted absentee ballots through August 28 will determine the precise margin, keeping trader focus on whether the final spread settles in the 3–6 percent or 6–9 percent range. Peltola’s stronger-than-expected performance and superior fundraising reflect her appeal among independents and Alaska Natives, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency and Republican base support in a state that has trended conservative in recent cycles. The narrow gap and remaining ballots sustain uncertainty around the exact victory margin ahead of the November general election under ranked-choice voting.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$20,579End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly 5.4 points in Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary, with 80 percent of precincts reporting Peltola at 48.1 percent and Sullivan at 42.7 percent. Late-counted absentee ballots through August 28 will determine the precise margin, keeping trader focus on whether the final spread settles in the 3–6 percent or 6–9 percent range. Peltola’s stronger-than-expected performance and superior fundraising reflect her appeal among independents and Alaska Natives, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency and Republican base support in a state that has trended conservative in recent cycles. The narrow gap and remaining ballots sustain uncertainty around the exact victory margin ahead of the November general election under ranked-choice voting.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$20,579End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly 5.4 points in Alaska’s August 18 top-four primary, with 80 percent of precincts reporting Peltola at 48.1 percent and Sullivan at 42.7 percent. Late-counted absentee ballots through August 28 will determine the precise margin, keeping trader focus on whether the final spread settles in the 3–6 percent or 6–9 percent range. Peltola’s stronger-than-expected performance and superior fundraising reflect her appeal among independents and Alaska Natives, while Sullivan benefits from incumbency and Republican base support in a state that has trended conservative in recent cycles. The narrow gap and remaining ballots sustain uncertainty around the exact victory margin ahead of the November general election under ranked-choice voting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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