**Traders assign an 88% probability to "No" on Otzma Yehudit and Noam running on the same list for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election because recent statements and positioning show both parties pursuing independent paths amid right-wing fragmentation.** Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir has repeatedly ruled out joint lists that he views as diluting his party's strength, most recently rejecting Netanyahu's push for a technical merger with Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism despite polls showing the latter risking the 3.25% threshold. Noam, led by Avi Maoz, rebranded as "Noam for Israel" in July 2026, launched its own campaign slate, and polls below 1% with no reported negotiations toward an Otzma Yehudit alliance. Both parties target overlapping religious-nationalist voters but have split after past technical arrangements, and current dynamics—including Ofer Winter's new party drawing right-wing support—favor standalone runs over consolidation. The high "No" odds reflect this absence of merger signals in the final weeks before candidate-list deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 7, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign an 88% probability to "No" on Otzma Yehudit and Noam running on the same list for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election because recent statements and positioning show both parties pursuing independent paths amid right-wing fragmentation.**
Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir has repeatedly ruled out joint lists that he views as diluting his party's strength, most recently rejecting Netanyahu's push for a technical merger with Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism despite polls showing the latter risking the 3.25% threshold. Noam, led by Avi Maoz, rebranded as "Noam for Israel" in July 2026, launched its own campaign slate, and polls below 1% with no reported negotiations toward an Otzma Yehudit alliance.
Both parties target overlapping religious-nationalist voters but have split after past technical arrangements, and current dynamics—including Ofer Winter's new party drawing right-wing support—favor standalone runs over consolidation. The high "No" odds reflect this absence of merger signals in the final weeks before candidate-list deadlines.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Traders assign an 88% probability to "No" on Otzma Yehudit and Noam running on the same list for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election because recent statements and positioning show both parties pursuing independent paths amid right-wing fragmentation.**
Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir has repeatedly ruled out joint lists that he views as diluting his party's strength, most recently rejecting Netanyahu's push for a technical merger with Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism despite polls showing the latter risking the 3.25% threshold. Noam, led by Avi Maoz, rebranded as "Noam for Israel" in July 2026, launched its own campaign slate, and polls below 1% with no reported negotiations toward an Otzma Yehudit alliance.
Both parties target overlapping religious-nationalist voters but have split after past technical arrangements, and current dynamics—including Ofer Winter's new party drawing right-wing support—favor standalone runs over consolidation. The high "No" odds reflect this absence of merger signals in the final weeks before candidate-list deadlines.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 88% probability to "No" on Otzma Yehudit and Noam running on the same list for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election because recent statements and positioning show both parties pursuing independent paths amid right-wing fragmentation.** Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir has repeatedly ruled out joint lists that he views as diluting his party's strength, most recently rejecting Netanyahu's push for a technical merger with Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism despite polls showing the latter risking the 3.25% threshold. Noam, led by Avi Maoz, rebranded as "Noam for Israel" in July 2026, launched its own campaign slate, and polls below 1% with no reported negotiations toward an Otzma Yehudit alliance. Both parties target overlapping religious-nationalist voters but have split after past technical arrangements, and current dynamics—including Ofer Winter's new party drawing right-wing support—favor standalone runs over consolidation. The high "No" odds reflect this absence of merger signals in the final weeks before candidate-list deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions