Trader consensus reflects the absence of any active diplomatic negotiations or public signals pointing to a new accession in the final days before the August 31 deadline. Kazakhstan formalized its entry in November 2025 as the most recent participant, while candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition normalization on verifiable steps toward Palestinian statehood, and other prospective states including Syria and Azerbaijan show no procedural advancement. The one-week window precludes the multi-step process of bilateral talks, public announcements, and formal signing typically required. High implied probability for no new member therefore tracks the established pace of Abraham Accords expansion and the lack of scheduled summits or breakthroughs. Late-stage developments, such as an unexpected bilateral agreement or rapid U.S.-mediated announcement, remain theoretically possible but would represent a departure from recent patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$55,740 Vol.
$55,740 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
2% chance
$55,740 Vol.
$55,740 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of any active diplomatic negotiations or public signals pointing to a new accession in the final days before the August 31 deadline. Kazakhstan formalized its entry in November 2025 as the most recent participant, while candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition normalization on verifiable steps toward Palestinian statehood, and other prospective states including Syria and Azerbaijan show no procedural advancement. The one-week window precludes the multi-step process of bilateral talks, public announcements, and formal signing typically required. High implied probability for no new member therefore tracks the established pace of Abraham Accords expansion and the lack of scheduled summits or breakthroughs. Late-stage developments, such as an unexpected bilateral agreement or rapid U.S.-mediated announcement, remain theoretically possible but would represent a departure from recent patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$55,740End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects the absence of any active diplomatic negotiations or public signals pointing to a new accession in the final days before the August 31 deadline. Kazakhstan formalized its entry in November 2025 as the most recent participant, while candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition normalization on verifiable steps toward Palestinian statehood, and other prospective states including Syria and Azerbaijan show no procedural advancement. The one-week window precludes the multi-step process of bilateral talks, public announcements, and formal signing typically required. High implied probability for no new member therefore tracks the established pace of Abraham Accords expansion and the lack of scheduled summits or breakthroughs. Late-stage developments, such as an unexpected bilateral agreement or rapid U.S.-mediated announcement, remain theoretically possible but would represent a departure from recent patterns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$55,740End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects the absence of any active diplomatic negotiations or public signals pointing to a new accession in the final days before the August 31 deadline. Kazakhstan formalized its entry in November 2025 as the most recent participant, while candidates such as Saudi Arabia continue to condition normalization on verifiable steps toward Palestinian statehood, and other prospective states including Syria and Azerbaijan show no procedural advancement. The one-week window precludes the multi-step process of bilateral talks, public announcements, and formal signing typically required. High implied probability for no new member therefore tracks the established pace of Abraham Accords expansion and the lack of scheduled summits or breakthroughs. Late-stage developments, such as an unexpected bilateral agreement or rapid U.S.-mediated announcement, remain theoretically possible but would represent a departure from recent patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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