**No new country is positioned to join the Abraham Accords before the October 31 deadline, consistent with the market's 93.5% implied probability for “No.”** Saudi Arabia remains the leading candidate but continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand Israeli officials reject. Recent U.S. efforts, including the August 2026 presentation of a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to Congress, explicitly tie approval to Riyadh joining the Accords, yet Saudi statements have reiterated the Palestinian precondition. Other potential participants face similar barriers. Indonesia and several Muslim-majority states have signaled that Palestinian progress is a prerequisite. Syria has held talks with Israel and the U.S. but shows no signs of formal accession. Kazakhstan joined in November 2025, marking the most recent expansion, while Somaliland’s recognition by Israel has not translated into Accords membership. With roughly two months remaining and no announced negotiations nearing completion, the short timeline and unresolved core disputes—particularly Palestinian statehood and regional security dynamics following the Iran conflict—underpin trader consensus against an imminent new signatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**No new country is positioned to join the Abraham Accords before the October 31 deadline, consistent with the market's 93.5% implied probability for “No.”** Saudi Arabia remains the leading candidate but continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand Israeli officials reject. Recent U.S. efforts, including the August 2026 presentation of a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to Congress, explicitly tie approval to Riyadh joining the Accords, yet Saudi statements have reiterated the Palestinian precondition.
Other potential participants face similar barriers. Indonesia and several Muslim-majority states have signaled that Palestinian progress is a prerequisite. Syria has held talks with Israel and the U.S. but shows no signs of formal accession. Kazakhstan joined in November 2025, marking the most recent expansion, while Somaliland’s recognition by Israel has not translated into Accords membership.
With roughly two months remaining and no announced negotiations nearing completion, the short timeline and unresolved core disputes—particularly Palestinian statehood and regional security dynamics following the Iran conflict—underpin trader consensus against an imminent new signatory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$349End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.**No new country is positioned to join the Abraham Accords before the October 31 deadline, consistent with the market's 93.5% implied probability for “No.”** Saudi Arabia remains the leading candidate but continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand Israeli officials reject. Recent U.S. efforts, including the August 2026 presentation of a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to Congress, explicitly tie approval to Riyadh joining the Accords, yet Saudi statements have reiterated the Palestinian precondition.
Other potential participants face similar barriers. Indonesia and several Muslim-majority states have signaled that Palestinian progress is a prerequisite. Syria has held talks with Israel and the U.S. but shows no signs of formal accession. Kazakhstan joined in November 2025, marking the most recent expansion, while Somaliland’s recognition by Israel has not translated into Accords membership.
With roughly two months remaining and no announced negotiations nearing completion, the short timeline and unresolved core disputes—particularly Palestinian statehood and regional security dynamics following the Iran conflict—underpin trader consensus against an imminent new signatory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$375End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No new country is positioned to join the Abraham Accords before the October 31 deadline, consistent with the market's 93.5% implied probability for “No.”** Saudi Arabia remains the leading candidate but continues to condition normalization on an irreversible pathway to Palestinian statehood—a demand Israeli officials reject. Recent U.S. efforts, including the August 2026 presentation of a Saudi civil nuclear agreement to Congress, explicitly tie approval to Riyadh joining the Accords, yet Saudi statements have reiterated the Palestinian precondition. Other potential participants face similar barriers. Indonesia and several Muslim-majority states have signaled that Palestinian progress is a prerequisite. Syria has held talks with Israel and the U.S. but shows no signs of formal accession. Kazakhstan joined in November 2025, marking the most recent expansion, while Somaliland’s recognition by Israel has not translated into Accords membership. With roughly two months remaining and no announced negotiations nearing completion, the short timeline and unresolved core disputes—particularly Palestinian statehood and regional security dynamics following the Iran conflict—underpin trader consensus against an imminent new signatory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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