Recent Bank of Israel actions and data have anchored trader expectations for no change at the September 1 decision. After the July 25-basis-point cut to 3.5 percent, inflation has held near the 1.5 percent midpoint of the 1–3 percent target range while the shekel remains firm, limiting imported price pressures. Post-ceasefire economic rebound and upgraded GDP forecasts support a measured path toward further easing without immediate need for another move. Markets price an overwhelming probability of a hold because incoming CPI and labor figures have shown no material deviation from this baseline. A sharp inflation surprise, renewed geopolitical tensions, or abrupt shekel weakening could still shift the outlook before the meeting.