The Bank of Russia’s September 11 meeting occurs against a backdrop of elevated inflation expectations and one-off price pressures from fuel costs and supply disruptions, which prompted an upward revision to the 2026 inflation forecast to 6.0–7.0 percent after the July 24 cut of 25 basis points to 14.00 percent. Officials have signaled a smoother easing path, raising the projected average key rate to 14.5–14.6 percent for the year amid more expansionary fiscal policy and risks to underlying price stability. Analysts view the September decision as largely data-light and unlikely to alter the medium-term trajectory, supporting trader consensus that the board will maintain the current level while monitoring inflation dynamics and budget developments. A cut would require clearer evidence of sustained disinflation, while an increase remains remote given the recent cautious easing cycle.