Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise, with energy prices falling 1.5% and shelter contributing most of the gain, has anchored trader expectations for August around the 0.3-0.4% range. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 0.35% headline and 0.20% core growth for the month, reflecting continued moderation after earlier Middle East-related energy volatility. Persistent housing costs and stable food prices support the market-implied odds favoring 0.4% at 43.5%, while downside risks from further energy declines keep 0.3% at 26.5%. The August CPI release on September 11 remains the key near-term catalyst shaping these probabilities amid ongoing labor market resilience.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.4% 43%
0.3% 27%
≥0.5% 23%
-0.2% 5.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
≤-0.3%
1%
-0.2%
5%
-0.1%
1%
0.0%
2%
0.1%
1%
0.2%
5%
0.3%
27%
0.4%
43%
≥0.5%
23%
0.4% 43%
0.3% 27%
≥0.5% 23%
-0.2% 5.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 10, 2026
≤-0.3%
$164 Vol.
1%
-0.2%
$179 Vol.
5%
-0.1%
$253 Vol.
1%
0.0%
$323 Vol.
2%
0.1%
$281 Vol.
1%
0.2%
$562 Vol.
5%
0.3%
$2,147 Vol.
27%
0.4%
$1,806 Vol.
43%
≥0.5%
$1,512 Vol.
23%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise, with energy prices falling 1.5% and shelter contributing most of the gain, has anchored trader expectations for August around the 0.3-0.4% range. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 0.35% headline and 0.20% core growth for the month, reflecting continued moderation after earlier Middle East-related energy volatility. Persistent housing costs and stable food prices support the market-implied odds favoring 0.4% at 43.5%, while downside risks from further energy declines keep 0.3% at 26.5%. The August CPI release on September 11 remains the key near-term catalyst shaping these probabilities amid ongoing labor market resilience.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ET
Volume
$7,228End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise, with energy prices falling 1.5% and shelter contributing most of the gain, has anchored trader expectations for August around the 0.3-0.4% range. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 0.35% headline and 0.20% core growth for the month, reflecting continued moderation after earlier Middle East-related energy volatility. Persistent housing costs and stable food prices support the market-implied odds favoring 0.4% at 43.5%, while downside risks from further energy declines keep 0.3% at 26.5%. The August CPI release on September 11 remains the key near-term catalyst shaping these probabilities amid ongoing labor market resilience.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$7,228End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise, with energy prices falling 1.5% and shelter contributing most of the gain, has anchored trader expectations for August around the 0.3-0.4% range. Cleveland Fed nowcasts point to 0.35% headline and 0.20% core growth for the month, reflecting continued moderation after earlier Middle East-related energy volatility. Persistent housing costs and stable food prices support the market-implied odds favoring 0.4% at 43.5%, while downside risks from further energy declines keep 0.3% at 26.5%. The August CPI release on September 11 remains the key near-term catalyst shaping these probabilities amid ongoing labor market resilience.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions