Mexico's inflation trajectory, with the annual rate easing to 3.26% in early August 2026 from 3.37% in June after peaking near 4.6% earlier in the year, underpins the market's clustering around the 3.50-3.99% range at 31.6% implied probability. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.93%, reflecting persistent services pressures amid a 6.5% Banxico policy rate and expectations for convergence to the 3% target only in late 2027. Modest GDP growth around 1%, recent food price rebounds, and external risks such as trade frictions and potential supply shocks contribute to the broad distribution across bins from 3.00-4.99%, with upcoming CPI releases and central bank communications likely to refine year-end forecasts near 4.0-4.2%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 31.6%
4.00% to 4.49% 22%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.9%
2.50% to 2.99% 8.0%
$65,195 Vol.
$65,195 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
2%
2.50% to 2.99%
8%
3.00% to 3.49%
21%
3.50% to 3.99%
32%
4.00% to 4.49%
22%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
3%
3.50% to 3.99% 31.6%
4.00% to 4.49% 22%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.9%
2.50% to 2.99% 8.0%
$65,195 Vol.
$65,195 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
$1,111 Vol.
2%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,895 Vol.
8%
3.00% to 3.49%
$28,700 Vol.
21%
3.50% to 3.99%
$4,085 Vol.
32%
4.00% to 4.49%
$12,883 Vol.
22%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,755 Vol.
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,454 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$6,313 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's inflation trajectory, with the annual rate easing to 3.26% in early August 2026 from 3.37% in June after peaking near 4.6% earlier in the year, underpins the market's clustering around the 3.50-3.99% range at 31.6% implied probability. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.93%, reflecting persistent services pressures amid a 6.5% Banxico policy rate and expectations for convergence to the 3% target only in late 2027. Modest GDP growth around 1%, recent food price rebounds, and external risks such as trade frictions and potential supply shocks contribute to the broad distribution across bins from 3.00-4.99%, with upcoming CPI releases and central bank communications likely to refine year-end forecasts near 4.0-4.2%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$65,195End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's inflation trajectory, with the annual rate easing to 3.26% in early August 2026 from 3.37% in June after peaking near 4.6% earlier in the year, underpins the market's clustering around the 3.50-3.99% range at 31.6% implied probability. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.93%, reflecting persistent services pressures amid a 6.5% Banxico policy rate and expectations for convergence to the 3% target only in late 2027. Modest GDP growth around 1%, recent food price rebounds, and external risks such as trade frictions and potential supply shocks contribute to the broad distribution across bins from 3.00-4.99%, with upcoming CPI releases and central bank communications likely to refine year-end forecasts near 4.0-4.2%.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$65,195End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mexico's inflation trajectory, with the annual rate easing to 3.26% in early August 2026 from 3.37% in June after peaking near 4.6% earlier in the year, underpins the market's clustering around the 3.50-3.99% range at 31.6% implied probability. Core inflation remains stickier near 3.93%, reflecting persistent services pressures amid a 6.5% Banxico policy rate and expectations for convergence to the 3% target only in late 2027. Modest GDP growth around 1%, recent food price rebounds, and external risks such as trade frictions and potential supply shocks contribute to the broad distribution across bins from 3.00-4.99%, with upcoming CPI releases and central bank communications likely to refine year-end forecasts near 4.0-4.2%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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