Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by supply-chain disruptions and higher energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, forms the main driver behind the 56.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, while the labor market remains resilient despite softer July payrolls. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% after its July meeting, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. Futures pricing has shifted from earlier cut expectations toward modest tightening by year-end. Near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision and upcoming CPI and PCE releases that will test whether inflation momentum persists amid stable economic activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated56% chance
$7,941,330 Vol.
$7,941,330 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
56% chance
$7,941,330 Vol.
$7,941,330 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by supply-chain disruptions and higher energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, forms the main driver behind the 56.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, while the labor market remains resilient despite softer July payrolls. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% after its July meeting, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. Futures pricing has shifted from earlier cut expectations toward modest tightening by year-end. Near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision and upcoming CPI and PCE releases that will test whether inflation momentum persists amid stable economic activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,941,330End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by supply-chain disruptions and higher energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, forms the main driver behind the 56.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, while the labor market remains resilient despite softer July payrolls. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% after its July meeting, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. Futures pricing has shifted from earlier cut expectations toward modest tightening by year-end. Near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision and upcoming CPI and PCE releases that will test whether inflation momentum persists amid stable economic activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,941,330End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by supply-chain disruptions and higher energy prices from the ongoing Middle East conflict, forms the main driver behind the 56.5% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. July CPI showed headline inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5%, while the labor market remains resilient despite softer July payrolls. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% after its July meeting, with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. Futures pricing has shifted from earlier cut expectations toward modest tightening by year-end. Near-term catalysts include the September FOMC decision and upcoming CPI and PCE releases that will test whether inflation momentum persists amid stable economic activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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