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icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

icon for Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates

Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?

2% chance
Polymarket
NEW
2% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge’s ruling of essentially zero evidence on renovation-related testimony or cost overruns exceeding $2.4 billion, underpins the 97.9% market-implied probability he will not serve jail time before 2027. With no active indictments, subpoenas, or pending charges and Powell’s term concluding amid the transition to successor Kevin Warsh, traders assign negligible odds to incarceration over the remaining months of 2026. This reflects aggregated real-money consensus on the absence of viable legal pathways. Remote tail risks, such as an unforeseen restart of proceedings or unrelated allegations, remain possible but lack any current basis in filings or regulatory actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,637
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge’s ruling of essentially zero evidence on renovation-related testimony or cost overruns exceeding $2.4 billion, underpins the 97.9% market-implied probability he will not serve jail time before 2027. With no active indictments, subpoenas, or pending charges and Powell’s term concluding amid the transition to successor Kevin Warsh, traders assign negligible odds to incarceration over the remaining months of 2026. This reflects aggregated real-money consensus on the absence of viable legal pathways. Remote tail risks, such as an unforeseen restart of proceedings or unrelated allegations, remain possible but lack any current basis in filings or regulatory actions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,637
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 2% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 2¢, the market collectively assigns a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" is 2% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 2% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.