Trump administration efforts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over pre-appointment mortgage fraud allegations remain the dominant catalyst, with a fresh August 7 letter restarting formal proceedings after the Supreme Court’s June 29 ruling blocked an immediate firing. That 5-4 decision reinforced the Fed’s statutory for-cause protections and due-process requirements, sending the case back to lower courts while Cook continues serving her term through 2038. Recent economic data, including June PCE inflation at 3.7 percent and a stable labor market, underscore the stakes for monetary policy continuity. Traders price low near-term odds of removal, reflecting procedural hurdles and the Fed’s institutional insulation from political pressure. Key upcoming milestones include Cook’s response deadline around August 26 and further district court proceedings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
October 31
2%
November 30
7%
December 31
7%
$5,007 Vol.
September 30
$1,300 Vol.
1%
October 31
$1,446 Vol.
2%
November 30
$1,021 Vol.
7%
December 31
$1,240 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trump administration efforts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over pre-appointment mortgage fraud allegations remain the dominant catalyst, with a fresh August 7 letter restarting formal proceedings after the Supreme Court’s June 29 ruling blocked an immediate firing. That 5-4 decision reinforced the Fed’s statutory for-cause protections and due-process requirements, sending the case back to lower courts while Cook continues serving her term through 2038. Recent economic data, including June PCE inflation at 3.7 percent and a stable labor market, underscore the stakes for monetary policy continuity. Traders price low near-term odds of removal, reflecting procedural hurdles and the Fed’s institutional insulation from political pressure. Key upcoming milestones include Cook’s response deadline around August 26 and further district court proceedings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$5,007End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Trump administration efforts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over pre-appointment mortgage fraud allegations remain the dominant catalyst, with a fresh August 7 letter restarting formal proceedings after the Supreme Court’s June 29 ruling blocked an immediate firing. That 5-4 decision reinforced the Fed’s statutory for-cause protections and due-process requirements, sending the case back to lower courts while Cook continues serving her term through 2038. Recent economic data, including June PCE inflation at 3.7 percent and a stable labor market, underscore the stakes for monetary policy continuity. Traders price low near-term odds of removal, reflecting procedural hurdles and the Fed’s institutional insulation from political pressure. Key upcoming milestones include Cook’s response deadline around August 26 and further district court proceedings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lisa Cook formally ceases to hold the position of Member of the US Federal Reserve Board of Governors by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Lisa Cook must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, dismissal, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$5,007End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration efforts to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over pre-appointment mortgage fraud allegations remain the dominant catalyst, with a fresh August 7 letter restarting formal proceedings after the Supreme Court’s June 29 ruling blocked an immediate firing. That 5-4 decision reinforced the Fed’s statutory for-cause protections and due-process requirements, sending the case back to lower courts while Cook continues serving her term through 2038. Recent economic data, including June PCE inflation at 3.7 percent and a stable labor market, underscore the stakes for monetary policy continuity. Traders price low near-term odds of removal, reflecting procedural hurdles and the Fed’s institutional insulation from political pressure. Key upcoming milestones include Cook’s response deadline around August 26 and further district court proceedings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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