Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in May 2026, following the withdrawal of pressure on predecessor Jerome Powell, underpins the 93.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Despite persistent White House calls for lower rates amid above-target inflation and geopolitical pressures, Trump has publicly endorsed Warsh’s independence, maintained frequent direct communications, and avoided the confrontational tactics used against Governor Lisa Cook. The June 2026 Supreme Court rulings reinforcing procedural protections for Fed officials further raise the bar for any dismissal. While sustained policy divergence—such as a hawkish Jackson Hole signal or further rate hikes—could test the relationship, the combination of personal rapport, legal precedent, and Trump’s focus on other priorities sustains strong trader consensus against an attempted firing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
6% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in May 2026, following the withdrawal of pressure on predecessor Jerome Powell, underpins the 93.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Despite persistent White House calls for lower rates amid above-target inflation and geopolitical pressures, Trump has publicly endorsed Warsh’s independence, maintained frequent direct communications, and avoided the confrontational tactics used against Governor Lisa Cook. The June 2026 Supreme Court rulings reinforcing procedural protections for Fed officials further raise the bar for any dismissal. While sustained policy divergence—such as a hawkish Jackson Hole signal or further rate hikes—could test the relationship, the combination of personal rapport, legal precedent, and Trump’s focus on other priorities sustains strong trader consensus against an attempted firing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,452End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in May 2026, following the withdrawal of pressure on predecessor Jerome Powell, underpins the 93.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Despite persistent White House calls for lower rates amid above-target inflation and geopolitical pressures, Trump has publicly endorsed Warsh’s independence, maintained frequent direct communications, and avoided the confrontational tactics used against Governor Lisa Cook. The June 2026 Supreme Court rulings reinforcing procedural protections for Fed officials further raise the bar for any dismissal. While sustained policy divergence—such as a hawkish Jackson Hole signal or further rate hikes—could test the relationship, the combination of personal rapport, legal precedent, and Trump’s focus on other priorities sustains strong trader consensus against an attempted firing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,452End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in May 2026, following the withdrawal of pressure on predecessor Jerome Powell, underpins the 93.8% market-implied probability that the president will not attempt removal this year. Despite persistent White House calls for lower rates amid above-target inflation and geopolitical pressures, Trump has publicly endorsed Warsh’s independence, maintained frequent direct communications, and avoided the confrontational tactics used against Governor Lisa Cook. The June 2026 Supreme Court rulings reinforcing procedural protections for Fed officials further raise the bar for any dismissal. While sustained policy divergence—such as a hawkish Jackson Hole signal or further rate hikes—could test the relationship, the combination of personal rapport, legal precedent, and Trump’s focus on other priorities sustains strong trader consensus against an attempted firing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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