Recent cooler inflation prints and softening labor market data have reinforced the 57.5% implied probability of a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the July, September, and October FOMC meetings, with the Fed holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% after the 9–3 July decision. Elevated headline inflation near 3.5% and core readings above the 2% target, driven by Middle East energy supply shocks, sustain hawkish dissent and the 40.5% “Other” probability that includes potential hikes. Solid economic growth and stable unemployment around 4.2% support a patient stance, while upcoming September projections, the August jobs report, and Jackson Hole speeches remain key catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPause–Pause–Pause 57%
Other 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$723,248 Vol.
$723,248 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
57%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
41%
Pause–Pause–Pause 57%
Other 41%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.0%
$723,248 Vol.
$723,248 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$239,174 Vol.
57%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$60,116 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$39,722 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,065 Vol.
<1%
Other
$313,685 Vol.
41%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent cooler inflation prints and softening labor market data have reinforced the 57.5% implied probability of a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the July, September, and October FOMC meetings, with the Fed holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% after the 9–3 July decision. Elevated headline inflation near 3.5% and core readings above the 2% target, driven by Middle East energy supply shocks, sustain hawkish dissent and the 40.5% “Other” probability that includes potential hikes. Solid economic growth and stable unemployment around 4.2% support a patient stance, while upcoming September projections, the August jobs report, and Jackson Hole speeches remain key catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$723,248End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent cooler inflation prints and softening labor market data have reinforced the 57.5% implied probability of a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the July, September, and October FOMC meetings, with the Fed holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% after the 9–3 July decision. Elevated headline inflation near 3.5% and core readings above the 2% target, driven by Middle East energy supply shocks, sustain hawkish dissent and the 40.5% “Other” probability that includes potential hikes. Solid economic growth and stable unemployment around 4.2% support a patient stance, while upcoming September projections, the August jobs report, and Jackson Hole speeches remain key catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$723,248End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooler inflation prints and softening labor market data have reinforced the 57.5% implied probability of a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the July, September, and October FOMC meetings, with the Fed holding the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% after the 9–3 July decision. Elevated headline inflation near 3.5% and core readings above the 2% target, driven by Middle East energy supply shocks, sustain hawkish dissent and the 40.5% “Other” probability that includes potential hikes. Solid economic growth and stable unemployment around 4.2% support a patient stance, while upcoming September projections, the August jobs report, and Jackson Hole speeches remain key catalysts that could shift market-implied odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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