Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by tariff effects and elevated energy costs from Middle East supply shocks, form the primary driver behind the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change and 29.0% odds of a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The July FOMC minutes released August 19 highlighted that many participants viewed further tightening as likely necessary absent cooler readings, with three dissents favoring an immediate hike and core PCE inflation holding near 3.3%. A resilient though softening labor market and solid GDP growth have reinforced the case against easing, shifting futures pricing modestly higher. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC with updated projections and upcoming CPI/PCE releases that could clarify whether inflation momentum persists into year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.8%
$278,078 Vol.
$278,078 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
29%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 29%
25 bps decrease 9.2%
50+ bps increase 2.8%
$278,078 Vol.
$278,078 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$52,092 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$60,771 Vol.
9%
No change
$49,931 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$57,478 Vol.
29%
50+ bps increase
$57,806 Vol.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by tariff effects and elevated energy costs from Middle East supply shocks, form the primary driver behind the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change and 29.0% odds of a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The July FOMC minutes released August 19 highlighted that many participants viewed further tightening as likely necessary absent cooler readings, with three dissents favoring an immediate hike and core PCE inflation holding near 3.3%. A resilient though softening labor market and solid GDP growth have reinforced the case against easing, shifting futures pricing modestly higher. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC with updated projections and upcoming CPI/PCE releases that could clarify whether inflation momentum persists into year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$278,078End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by tariff effects and elevated energy costs from Middle East supply shocks, form the primary driver behind the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change and 29.0% odds of a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The July FOMC minutes released August 19 highlighted that many participants viewed further tightening as likely necessary absent cooler readings, with three dissents favoring an immediate hike and core PCE inflation holding near 3.3%. A resilient though softening labor market and solid GDP growth have reinforced the case against easing, shifting futures pricing modestly higher. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC with updated projections and upcoming CPI/PCE releases that could clarify whether inflation momentum persists into year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$278,078End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, fueled by tariff effects and elevated energy costs from Middle East supply shocks, form the primary driver behind the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change and 29.0% odds of a 25 basis point hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting. The July FOMC minutes released August 19 highlighted that many participants viewed further tightening as likely necessary absent cooler readings, with three dissents favoring an immediate hike and core PCE inflation holding near 3.3%. A resilient though softening labor market and solid GDP growth have reinforced the case against easing, shifting futures pricing modestly higher. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC with updated projections and upcoming CPI/PCE releases that could clarify whether inflation momentum persists into year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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