The current federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% reflects the Fed's extended pause since late 2025, with market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting hovering around 24-44% across futures and prediction platforms. Elevated PCE inflation readings earlier in 2026, including a 4.1% year-over-year May print, combined with three dissents favoring tightening at the July meeting, have sustained hawkish sentiment despite softer July PPI and recent nowcasts pointing to moderation. Geopolitical supply shocks from U.S.-Iran tensions have lifted near-term inflation expectations, outweighing labor market cooling signals. Traders are watching the September dot plot and upcoming CPI/PCE releases for clarity, as a hold remains the base case through year-end per most economist surveys, though persistent above-target inflation could shift probabilities if data reaccelerates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,368,100 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
35%
October Meeting
41%
$2,368,100 Vol.
September Meeting
$912,175 Vol.
35%
October Meeting
$495,925 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The current federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% reflects the Fed's extended pause since late 2025, with market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting hovering around 24-44% across futures and prediction platforms. Elevated PCE inflation readings earlier in 2026, including a 4.1% year-over-year May print, combined with three dissents favoring tightening at the July meeting, have sustained hawkish sentiment despite softer July PPI and recent nowcasts pointing to moderation. Geopolitical supply shocks from U.S.-Iran tensions have lifted near-term inflation expectations, outweighing labor market cooling signals. Traders are watching the September dot plot and upcoming CPI/PCE releases for clarity, as a hold remains the base case through year-end per most economist surveys, though persistent above-target inflation could shift probabilities if data reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,368,100End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The current federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% reflects the Fed's extended pause since late 2025, with market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting hovering around 24-44% across futures and prediction platforms. Elevated PCE inflation readings earlier in 2026, including a 4.1% year-over-year May print, combined with three dissents favoring tightening at the July meeting, have sustained hawkish sentiment despite softer July PPI and recent nowcasts pointing to moderation. Geopolitical supply shocks from U.S.-Iran tensions have lifted near-term inflation expectations, outweighing labor market cooling signals. Traders are watching the September dot plot and upcoming CPI/PCE releases for clarity, as a hold remains the base case through year-end per most economist surveys, though persistent above-target inflation could shift probabilities if data reaccelerates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,368,100End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The current federal funds target range of 3.50%-3.75% reflects the Fed's extended pause since late 2025, with market-implied odds for a 25 basis point hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting hovering around 24-44% across futures and prediction platforms. Elevated PCE inflation readings earlier in 2026, including a 4.1% year-over-year May print, combined with three dissents favoring tightening at the July meeting, have sustained hawkish sentiment despite softer July PPI and recent nowcasts pointing to moderation. Geopolitical supply shocks from U.S.-Iran tensions have lifted near-term inflation expectations, outweighing labor market cooling signals. Traders are watching the September dot plot and upcoming CPI/PCE releases for clarity, as a hold remains the base case through year-end per most economist surveys, though persistent above-target inflation could shift probabilities if data reaccelerates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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