Elevated inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by June FOMC projections showing nine of 19 officials expecting at least one hike by year-end 2026 and three dissents favoring a July increase, underpin the 59.5% market-implied probability that the next policy move will be a hike from the current 3.50–3.75% target range. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while nonfarm payrolls contracted 23,000 amid downward revisions, yet core PCE remains near 3.3% and energy prices reflect lingering supply shocks. Recent minutes highlighted that many participants view further tightening as likely unless price pressures moderate, positioning the September 16 FOMC meeting and August 26 PCE release as key near-term catalysts that could sustain or shift trader consensus on the rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHike
60% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
60% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by June FOMC projections showing nine of 19 officials expecting at least one hike by year-end 2026 and three dissents favoring a July increase, underpin the 59.5% market-implied probability that the next policy move will be a hike from the current 3.50–3.75% target range. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while nonfarm payrolls contracted 23,000 amid downward revisions, yet core PCE remains near 3.3% and energy prices reflect lingering supply shocks. Recent minutes highlighted that many participants view further tightening as likely unless price pressures moderate, positioning the September 16 FOMC meeting and August 26 PCE release as key near-term catalysts that could sustain or shift trader consensus on the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$2,937End Date
Dec 31, 2028Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by June FOMC projections showing nine of 19 officials expecting at least one hike by year-end 2026 and three dissents favoring a July increase, underpin the 59.5% market-implied probability that the next policy move will be a hike from the current 3.50–3.75% target range. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while nonfarm payrolls contracted 23,000 amid downward revisions, yet core PCE remains near 3.3% and energy prices reflect lingering supply shocks. Recent minutes highlighted that many participants view further tightening as likely unless price pressures moderate, positioning the September 16 FOMC meeting and August 26 PCE release as key near-term catalysts that could sustain or shift trader consensus on the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$2,937End Date
Dec 31, 2028Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by June FOMC projections showing nine of 19 officials expecting at least one hike by year-end 2026 and three dissents favoring a July increase, underpin the 59.5% market-implied probability that the next policy move will be a hike from the current 3.50–3.75% target range. July CPI eased to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, while nonfarm payrolls contracted 23,000 amid downward revisions, yet core PCE remains near 3.3% and energy prices reflect lingering supply shocks. Recent minutes highlighted that many participants view further tightening as likely unless price pressures moderate, positioning the September 16 FOMC meeting and August 26 PCE release as key near-term catalysts that could sustain or shift trader consensus on the rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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