Elevated mortgage rates near 6% and constrained affordability continue to temper buyer demand in the New York City housing market, supporting trader consensus around the $663K–$689K range for median home values by September 30. Recent Redfin and Zillow data through July show typical values near $830K–$885K with modest 1–4% year-over-year gains amid rising statewide inventory and slower sales volume. National forecasts from J.P. Morgan and Fannie Mae point to flat-to-low single-digit price growth in 2026, while the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could influence rate expectations and near-term sentiment. Seasonal slowdowns into early fall and limited new listings further anchor probabilities in the upper bins without clear catalysts for sharp moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$689K+ 44.8%
$663K - $689K 31.3%
$636K - $663K 22.9%
$609K - $636K 4.3%
$46,113 Vol.
$46,113 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$555K
<1%
$555K - $582K
<1%
$582K - $609K
1%
$609K - $636K
4%
$636K - $663K
23%
$663K - $689K
31%
$689K+
45%
$689K+ 44.8%
$663K - $689K 31.3%
$636K - $663K 22.9%
$609K - $636K 4.3%
$46,113 Vol.
$46,113 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$555K
$764 Vol.
<1%
$555K - $582K
$2,183 Vol.
<1%
$582K - $609K
$700 Vol.
1%
$609K - $636K
$8,190 Vol.
4%
$636K - $663K
$29,461 Vol.
23%
$663K - $689K
$2,171 Vol.
31%
$689K+
$2,645 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)Elevated mortgage rates near 6% and constrained affordability continue to temper buyer demand in the New York City housing market, supporting trader consensus around the $663K–$689K range for median home values by September 30. Recent Redfin and Zillow data through July show typical values near $830K–$885K with modest 1–4% year-over-year gains amid rising statewide inventory and slower sales volume. National forecasts from J.P. Morgan and Fannie Mae point to flat-to-low single-digit price growth in 2026, while the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could influence rate expectations and near-term sentiment. Seasonal slowdowns into early fall and limited new listings further anchor probabilities in the upper bins without clear catalysts for sharp moves.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$46,113End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)Elevated mortgage rates near 6% and constrained affordability continue to temper buyer demand in the New York City housing market, supporting trader consensus around the $663K–$689K range for median home values by September 30. Recent Redfin and Zillow data through July show typical values near $830K–$885K with modest 1–4% year-over-year gains amid rising statewide inventory and slower sales volume. National forecasts from J.P. Morgan and Fannie Mae point to flat-to-low single-digit price growth in 2026, while the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could influence rate expectations and near-term sentiment. Seasonal slowdowns into early fall and limited new listings further anchor probabilities in the upper bins without clear catalysts for sharp moves.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/50)
Volume
$46,113End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated mortgage rates near 6% and constrained affordability continue to temper buyer demand in the New York City housing market, supporting trader consensus around the $663K–$689K range for median home values by September 30. Recent Redfin and Zillow data through July show typical values near $830K–$885K with modest 1–4% year-over-year gains amid rising statewide inventory and slower sales volume. National forecasts from J.P. Morgan and Fannie Mae point to flat-to-low single-digit price growth in 2026, while the September 15–16 FOMC meeting could influence rate expectations and near-term sentiment. Seasonal slowdowns into early fall and limited new listings further anchor probabilities in the upper bins without clear catalysts for sharp moves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions