**Trader consensus on no federal capital gains tax rate cut by the end of 2026 reflects the absence of enacted legislation following the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, combined with limited near-term legislative momentum.** The OBBBA made TCJA individual provisions permanent and expanded expensing but left the 0/15/20% long-term capital gains rate structure unchanged. In August 2026, the Trump administration floated proposals such as inflation indexing of cost basis and higher home-sale exclusions ahead of November midterms, with bipartisan ideas like the More Homes on the Market Act also circulating. These remain exploratory, however, with bills like the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act stalled in committee and no floor votes or passage expected before year-end. Midterm timing, deficit concerns, and competing priorities further reduce the odds of a broad rate reduction materializing in the resolution window. Traders price the status quo as the most probable outcome absent concrete congressional action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
14% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus on no federal capital gains tax rate cut by the end of 2026 reflects the absence of enacted legislation following the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, combined with limited near-term legislative momentum.**
The OBBBA made TCJA individual provisions permanent and expanded expensing but left the 0/15/20% long-term capital gains rate structure unchanged. In August 2026, the Trump administration floated proposals such as inflation indexing of cost basis and higher home-sale exclusions ahead of November midterms, with bipartisan ideas like the More Homes on the Market Act also circulating. These remain exploratory, however, with bills like the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act stalled in committee and no floor votes or passage expected before year-end.
Midterm timing, deficit concerns, and competing priorities further reduce the odds of a broad rate reduction materializing in the resolution window. Traders price the status quo as the most probable outcome absent concrete congressional action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$207End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus on no federal capital gains tax rate cut by the end of 2026 reflects the absence of enacted legislation following the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, combined with limited near-term legislative momentum.**
The OBBBA made TCJA individual provisions permanent and expanded expensing but left the 0/15/20% long-term capital gains rate structure unchanged. In August 2026, the Trump administration floated proposals such as inflation indexing of cost basis and higher home-sale exclusions ahead of November midterms, with bipartisan ideas like the More Homes on the Market Act also circulating. These remain exploratory, however, with bills like the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act stalled in committee and no floor votes or passage expected before year-end.
Midterm timing, deficit concerns, and competing priorities further reduce the odds of a broad rate reduction materializing in the resolution window. Traders price the status quo as the most probable outcome absent concrete congressional action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$207End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus on no federal capital gains tax rate cut by the end of 2026 reflects the absence of enacted legislation following the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, combined with limited near-term legislative momentum.** The OBBBA made TCJA individual provisions permanent and expanded expensing but left the 0/15/20% long-term capital gains rate structure unchanged. In August 2026, the Trump administration floated proposals such as inflation indexing of cost basis and higher home-sale exclusions ahead of November midterms, with bipartisan ideas like the More Homes on the Market Act also circulating. These remain exploratory, however, with bills like the Capital Gains Inflation Relief Act stalled in committee and no floor votes or passage expected before year-end. Midterm timing, deficit concerns, and competing priorities further reduce the odds of a broad rate reduction materializing in the resolution window. Traders price the status quo as the most probable outcome absent concrete congressional action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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