California voters will decide Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion (roughly 200–250 individuals), on the November 3, 2026 ballot. The measure qualified in June after collecting over 980,000 valid signatures and would direct most revenue toward healthcare programs to offset federal funding reductions, with smaller shares for education and food assistance. Trader consensus favoring rejection stems primarily from coordinated opposition by Governor Gavin Newsom, who advocates a federal approach instead, along with substantial spending by affected billionaires including Sergey Brin and business coalitions backing competing “poison pill” measures that could invalidate the tax even if approved. These factors, plus concerns over resident departures and revenue volatility, have outweighed initial polling support around 54% as the campaign intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated29% chance
$3,684,427 Vol.
$3,684,427 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
29% chance
$3,684,427 Vol.
$3,684,427 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California voters will decide Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion (roughly 200–250 individuals), on the November 3, 2026 ballot. The measure qualified in June after collecting over 980,000 valid signatures and would direct most revenue toward healthcare programs to offset federal funding reductions, with smaller shares for education and food assistance. Trader consensus favoring rejection stems primarily from coordinated opposition by Governor Gavin Newsom, who advocates a federal approach instead, along with substantial spending by affected billionaires including Sergey Brin and business coalitions backing competing “poison pill” measures that could invalidate the tax even if approved. These factors, plus concerns over resident departures and revenue volatility, have outweighed initial polling support around 54% as the campaign intensifies.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,684,427End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California voters will decide Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion (roughly 200–250 individuals), on the November 3, 2026 ballot. The measure qualified in June after collecting over 980,000 valid signatures and would direct most revenue toward healthcare programs to offset federal funding reductions, with smaller shares for education and food assistance. Trader consensus favoring rejection stems primarily from coordinated opposition by Governor Gavin Newsom, who advocates a federal approach instead, along with substantial spending by affected billionaires including Sergey Brin and business coalitions backing competing “poison pill” measures that could invalidate the tax even if approved. These factors, plus concerns over resident departures and revenue volatility, have outweighed initial polling support around 54% as the campaign intensifies.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,684,427End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California voters will decide Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion (roughly 200–250 individuals), on the November 3, 2026 ballot. The measure qualified in June after collecting over 980,000 valid signatures and would direct most revenue toward healthcare programs to offset federal funding reductions, with smaller shares for education and food assistance. Trader consensus favoring rejection stems primarily from coordinated opposition by Governor Gavin Newsom, who advocates a federal approach instead, along with substantial spending by affected billionaires including Sergey Brin and business coalitions backing competing “poison pill” measures that could invalidate the tax even if approved. These factors, plus concerns over resident departures and revenue volatility, have outweighed initial polling support around 54% as the campaign intensifies.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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