Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed 2% city income surtax on earnings above $1 million requires passage by the New York State Legislature and signature from Governor Kathy Hochul, who has repeatedly resisted broad personal income tax increases during budget negotiations. Lawmakers instead approved a narrower pied-à-terre surcharge on high-value second homes as part of the 2026 state budget, generating hundreds of millions annually without altering the city’s income tax structure. With the 2027 deadline less than 18 months away and no legislative momentum for the surtax in the current Albany session, traders assign overwhelming probability to failure. A reversal would most likely require Hochul to shift position amid acute budget shortfalls or post-election realignment, or a surprise override of a veto.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$65,633 Vol.
$65,633 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$65,633 Vol.
$65,633 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed 2% city income surtax on earnings above $1 million requires passage by the New York State Legislature and signature from Governor Kathy Hochul, who has repeatedly resisted broad personal income tax increases during budget negotiations. Lawmakers instead approved a narrower pied-à-terre surcharge on high-value second homes as part of the 2026 state budget, generating hundreds of millions annually without altering the city’s income tax structure. With the 2027 deadline less than 18 months away and no legislative momentum for the surtax in the current Albany session, traders assign overwhelming probability to failure. A reversal would most likely require Hochul to shift position amid acute budget shortfalls or post-election realignment, or a surprise override of a veto.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ET
Volume
$65,633End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed 2% city income surtax on earnings above $1 million requires passage by the New York State Legislature and signature from Governor Kathy Hochul, who has repeatedly resisted broad personal income tax increases during budget negotiations. Lawmakers instead approved a narrower pied-à-terre surcharge on high-value second homes as part of the 2026 state budget, generating hundreds of millions annually without altering the city’s income tax structure. With the 2027 deadline less than 18 months away and no legislative momentum for the surtax in the current Albany session, traders assign overwhelming probability to failure. A reversal would most likely require Hochul to shift position amid acute budget shortfalls or post-election realignment, or a surprise override of a veto.
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$65,633End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 6:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposed 2% city income surtax on earnings above $1 million requires passage by the New York State Legislature and signature from Governor Kathy Hochul, who has repeatedly resisted broad personal income tax increases during budget negotiations. Lawmakers instead approved a narrower pied-à-terre surcharge on high-value second homes as part of the 2026 state budget, generating hundreds of millions annually without altering the city’s income tax structure. With the 2027 deadline less than 18 months away and no legislative momentum for the surtax in the current Albany session, traders assign overwhelming probability to failure. A reversal would most likely require Hochul to shift position amid acute budget shortfalls or post-election realignment, or a surprise override of a veto.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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