President Trump's 2025 proposal for a roughly $2,000 per-person "tariff dividend" funded by import duties has generated limited follow-through. Analysts from the Tax Foundation, CRFB, and Yale Budget Lab estimate that projected 2026 tariff collections fall well short of the cost for any broad payout, even before accounting for Supreme Court limits on certain tariff authorities imposed earlier in the year. No legislation authorizing direct payments has advanced through Congress, and administration statements have remained general without a concrete timetable or funding mechanism. With the December 31, 2026, resolution date approaching and no new revenue streams or appropriations identified, trader pricing reflects the absence of enacted policy or legislative momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's 2025 proposal for a roughly $2,000 per-person "tariff dividend" funded by import duties has generated limited follow-through. Analysts from the Tax Foundation, CRFB, and Yale Budget Lab estimate that projected 2026 tariff collections fall well short of the cost for any broad payout, even before accounting for Supreme Court limits on certain tariff authorities imposed earlier in the year. No legislation authorizing direct payments has advanced through Congress, and administration statements have remained general without a concrete timetable or funding mechanism. With the December 31, 2026, resolution date approaching and no new revenue streams or appropriations identified, trader pricing reflects the absence of enacted policy or legislative momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
Volume
$1,883End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's 2025 proposal for a roughly $2,000 per-person "tariff dividend" funded by import duties has generated limited follow-through. Analysts from the Tax Foundation, CRFB, and Yale Budget Lab estimate that projected 2026 tariff collections fall well short of the cost for any broad payout, even before accounting for Supreme Court limits on certain tariff authorities imposed earlier in the year. No legislation authorizing direct payments has advanced through Congress, and administration statements have remained general without a concrete timetable or funding mechanism. With the December 31, 2026, resolution date approaching and no new revenue streams or appropriations identified, trader pricing reflects the absence of enacted policy or legislative momentum.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,883End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's 2025 proposal for a roughly $2,000 per-person "tariff dividend" funded by import duties has generated limited follow-through. Analysts from the Tax Foundation, CRFB, and Yale Budget Lab estimate that projected 2026 tariff collections fall well short of the cost for any broad payout, even before accounting for Supreme Court limits on certain tariff authorities imposed earlier in the year. No legislation authorizing direct payments has advanced through Congress, and administration statements have remained general without a concrete timetable or funding mechanism. With the December 31, 2026, resolution date approaching and no new revenue streams or appropriations identified, trader pricing reflects the absence of enacted policy or legislative momentum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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