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Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

icon for Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
Geopolitics·Trump

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

$385,516 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$385,516 Vol.

Polymarket

India

$69,050 Vol.

18%

Canada

$21,136 Vol.

17%

Israel

$504 Vol.

16%

Mexico

$2,772 Vol.

15%

Indonesia

$19,595 Vol.

14%

Vietnam

$6,732 Vol.

14%

Taiwan

$33,747 Vol.

13%

Australia

$6,207 Vol.

13%

South Africa

$472 Vol.

13%

Argentina

$22,643 Vol.

12%

United Kingdom

$564 Vol.

11%

Pakistan

$105,445 Vol.

10%

European Union

$13,331 Vol.

9%

Brazil

$4,596 Vol.

9%

Japan

$17,163 Vol.

9%

South Korea

$59,368 Vol.

7%

Russia

$2,191 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration has advanced multiple Agreements on Reciprocal Trade since 2025 by leveraging tariff threats and pauses under authorities like IEEPA, securing frameworks or final pacts with the EU, Japan, UK, China, South Korea, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Argentina, Taiwan, Ecuador, and others focused on tariff reductions, agricultural access, investment commitments, and non-tariff barrier relief. Recent catalysts include February 2026 signings with Taiwan and Ecuador plus August 2026 Argentina and Thailand announcements, while Canada faces unresolved USMCA review pressures and new tariff deadlines. Trader focus centers on whether additional bilateral talks with remaining partners like India, Mexico, or Vietnam reach completion before the 2027 cutoff amid shifting enforcement priorities and potential diplomatic summits.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$385,516
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration has advanced multiple Agreements on Reciprocal Trade since 2025 by leveraging tariff threats and pauses under authorities like IEEPA, securing frameworks or final pacts with the EU, Japan, UK, China, South Korea, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Argentina, Taiwan, Ecuador, and others focused on tariff reductions, agricultural access, investment commitments, and non-tariff barrier relief. Recent catalysts include February 2026 signings with Taiwan and Ecuador plus August 2026 Argentina and Thailand announcements, while Canada faces unresolved USMCA review pressures and new tariff deadlines. Trader focus centers on whether additional bilateral talks with remaining partners like India, Mexico, or Vietnam reach completion before the 2027 cutoff amid shifting enforcement priorities and potential diplomatic summits.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$385,516
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 17 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "India" at 18%, followed by "Canada" at 17%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" has generated $385.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?," browse the 17 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" is "India" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Canada" at 17%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.