**Ongoing Iran-US tensions and enforcement actions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted since late February 2026, with recent August developments reinforcing expectations that normal volumes will not resume by year-end.** As of late August 2026, AIS-detected transits remain roughly 90% below pre-conflict baselines, with only single-digit or low double-digit commercial vessels moving daily despite some US-facilitated passages. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority has blacklisted dozens of tankers for using unauthorized routes, threatening fines, detention, or confiscation, while reasserting control through permits, potential tolls, and selective access. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal rates, deterring most operators and stranding vessels. US sanctions expansions and blockade elements, combined with Iranian countermeasures and persistent security risks including mines and surveillance, sustain dual-track traffic patterns rather than broad normalization. Fragile ceasefire elements and diplomatic talks with Oman have not produced verifiable de-escalation sufficient to restore pre-war throughput levels of roughly 70+ vessels per day. Traders price the “No” outcome at 66.5% because structural barriers—control disputes, sanctions regimes, and risk pricing—show little sign of rapid resolution in the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated34% chance
$9,169,995 Vol.
$9,169,995 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
34% chance
$9,169,995 Vol.
$9,169,995 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing Iran-US tensions and enforcement actions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted since late February 2026, with recent August developments reinforcing expectations that normal volumes will not resume by year-end.**
As of late August 2026, AIS-detected transits remain roughly 90% below pre-conflict baselines, with only single-digit or low double-digit commercial vessels moving daily despite some US-facilitated passages. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority has blacklisted dozens of tankers for using unauthorized routes, threatening fines, detention, or confiscation, while reasserting control through permits, potential tolls, and selective access. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal rates, deterring most operators and stranding vessels.
US sanctions expansions and blockade elements, combined with Iranian countermeasures and persistent security risks including mines and surveillance, sustain dual-track traffic patterns rather than broad normalization. Fragile ceasefire elements and diplomatic talks with Oman have not produced verifiable de-escalation sufficient to restore pre-war throughput levels of roughly 70+ vessels per day. Traders price the “No” outcome at 66.5% because structural barriers—control disputes, sanctions regimes, and risk pricing—show little sign of rapid resolution in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
Volume
$9,169,995End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing Iran-US tensions and enforcement actions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted since late February 2026, with recent August developments reinforcing expectations that normal volumes will not resume by year-end.**
As of late August 2026, AIS-detected transits remain roughly 90% below pre-conflict baselines, with only single-digit or low double-digit commercial vessels moving daily despite some US-facilitated passages. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority has blacklisted dozens of tankers for using unauthorized routes, threatening fines, detention, or confiscation, while reasserting control through permits, potential tolls, and selective access. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal rates, deterring most operators and stranding vessels.
US sanctions expansions and blockade elements, combined with Iranian countermeasures and persistent security risks including mines and surveillance, sustain dual-track traffic patterns rather than broad normalization. Fragile ceasefire elements and diplomatic talks with Oman have not produced verifiable de-escalation sufficient to restore pre-war throughput levels of roughly 70+ vessels per day. Traders price the “No” outcome at 66.5% because structural barriers—control disputes, sanctions regimes, and risk pricing—show little sign of rapid resolution in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$9,169,995End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing Iran-US tensions and enforcement actions have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely restricted since late February 2026, with recent August developments reinforcing expectations that normal volumes will not resume by year-end.** As of late August 2026, AIS-detected transits remain roughly 90% below pre-conflict baselines, with only single-digit or low double-digit commercial vessels moving daily despite some US-facilitated passages. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority has blacklisted dozens of tankers for using unauthorized routes, threatening fines, detention, or confiscation, while reasserting control through permits, potential tolls, and selective access. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal rates, deterring most operators and stranding vessels. US sanctions expansions and blockade elements, combined with Iranian countermeasures and persistent security risks including mines and surveillance, sustain dual-track traffic patterns rather than broad normalization. Fragile ceasefire elements and diplomatic talks with Oman have not produced verifiable de-escalation sufficient to restore pre-war throughput levels of roughly 70+ vessels per day. Traders price the “No” outcome at 66.5% because structural barriers—control disputes, sanctions regimes, and risk pricing—show little sign of rapid resolution in the remaining months of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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