**Recent US-Iran negotiations following 2025 military strikes have produced only an interim June 2026 MoU that defers core issues on uranium enrichment.** The agreement mandates IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran's existing highly enriched uranium stockpile as a minimum step and calls for further talks on enrichment limits within a 60-day window, but Iran has not committed to halting all enrichment activities. The deadline expired without a final deal, amid disputes over IAEA access to damaged sites like Natanz and Fordow, Iranian insistence on its right to enrichment for civilian purposes, and stalled progress on verification or permanent restrictions. These unresolved gaps in diplomacy and verification sustain trader expectations that Tehran will not agree to end enrichment by the December 31 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated14% chance
$1,670,397 Vol.
$1,670,397 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
14% chance
$1,670,397 Vol.
$1,670,397 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Recent US-Iran negotiations following 2025 military strikes have produced only an interim June 2026 MoU that defers core issues on uranium enrichment.** The agreement mandates IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran's existing highly enriched uranium stockpile as a minimum step and calls for further talks on enrichment limits within a 60-day window, but Iran has not committed to halting all enrichment activities. The deadline expired without a final deal, amid disputes over IAEA access to damaged sites like Natanz and Fordow, Iranian insistence on its right to enrichment for civilian purposes, and stalled progress on verification or permanent restrictions. These unresolved gaps in diplomacy and verification sustain trader expectations that Tehran will not agree to end enrichment by the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,670,397End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Recent US-Iran negotiations following 2025 military strikes have produced only an interim June 2026 MoU that defers core issues on uranium enrichment.** The agreement mandates IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran's existing highly enriched uranium stockpile as a minimum step and calls for further talks on enrichment limits within a 60-day window, but Iran has not committed to halting all enrichment activities. The deadline expired without a final deal, amid disputes over IAEA access to damaged sites like Natanz and Fordow, Iranian insistence on its right to enrichment for civilian purposes, and stalled progress on verification or permanent restrictions. These unresolved gaps in diplomacy and verification sustain trader expectations that Tehran will not agree to end enrichment by the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,670,397End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent US-Iran negotiations following 2025 military strikes have produced only an interim June 2026 MoU that defers core issues on uranium enrichment.** The agreement mandates IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran's existing highly enriched uranium stockpile as a minimum step and calls for further talks on enrichment limits within a 60-day window, but Iran has not committed to halting all enrichment activities. The deadline expired without a final deal, amid disputes over IAEA access to damaged sites like Natanz and Fordow, Iranian insistence on its right to enrichment for civilian purposes, and stalled progress on verification or permanent restrictions. These unresolved gaps in diplomacy and verification sustain trader expectations that Tehran will not agree to end enrichment by the December 31 deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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