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Geopolitics·Nuclear

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

icon for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Geopolitics·Nuclear

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

11% chance
Polymarket

$383,988 Vol.

11% chance
Polymarket

$383,988 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals to parliament in August 2026 calling for NPT withdrawal and defense doctrine changes, citing repeated U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in 2025–2026 that damaged facilities and prompted IAEA monitoring suspensions. These moves reflect hardline parliamentary pressure amid eroded safeguards compliance and unresolved highly enriched uranium stockpiles. However, senior Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokespeople and the president, have reiterated NPT commitments, non-weaponization pledges, and openness to renewed talks under interim agreements like the June 2026 Islamabad MOU. IAEA leadership has noted Tehran’s signals against formal exit. With withdrawal requiring three months’ notice under Article X and no executive action taken, traders assign an 88.8% implied probability to no exit before 2027, viewing the proposals as leverage rather than imminent policy.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$383,988
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iranian lawmakers submitted formal proposals to parliament in August 2026 calling for NPT withdrawal and defense doctrine changes, citing repeated U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites in 2025–2026 that damaged facilities and prompted IAEA monitoring suspensions. These moves reflect hardline parliamentary pressure amid eroded safeguards compliance and unresolved highly enriched uranium stockpiles. However, senior Iranian officials, including Foreign Ministry spokespeople and the president, have reiterated NPT commitments, non-weaponization pledges, and openness to renewed talks under interim agreements like the June 2026 Islamabad MOU. IAEA leadership has noted Tehran’s signals against formal exit. With withdrawal requiring three months’ notice under Article X and no executive action taken, traders assign an 88.8% implied probability to no exit before 2027, viewing the proposals as leverage rather than imminent policy.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.

The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$383,988
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 11% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 11¢, the market collectively assigns a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" has generated $384K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" is 11% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 11% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.