Iran's ongoing campaign to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, strikes, and seizures on non-compliant commercial vessels remains the central driver of trader focus in this market. Following the breakdown of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum, Iranian forces struck the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY and seized the tanker AMARA in mid-August, with authorities on August 24 blacklisting 45 tankers and threatening detention or confiscation for violations of designated routes. These actions build on repeated July incidents and reflect efforts to enforce routing protocols and fees amid U.S. naval responses and blockade measures. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping add regional spillover pressure, while any new diplomatic engagement or escalation in enforcement before late-August resolution windows could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$181,165 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
August 17
60%
August 18
22%
August 21
1%
August 22
1%
August 23
3%
August 24
51%
August 25
28%
August 26
37%
August 27
11%
August 28
11%
August 29
14%
August 30
17%
August 31
38%
$181,165 Vol.
August 17
$3,649 Vol.
60%
August 18
$2,470 Vol.
22%
August 21
$1,786 Vol.
1%
August 22
$1,556 Vol.
1%
August 23
$3,915 Vol.
3%
August 24
$9,428 Vol.
51%
August 25
$599 Vol.
28%
August 26
$1,009 Vol.
37%
August 27
$489 Vol.
11%
August 28
$1,464 Vol.
11%
August 29
$2,531 Vol.
14%
August 30
$654 Vol.
17%
August 31
$3,346 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's ongoing campaign to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, strikes, and seizures on non-compliant commercial vessels remains the central driver of trader focus in this market. Following the breakdown of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum, Iranian forces struck the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY and seized the tanker AMARA in mid-August, with authorities on August 24 blacklisting 45 tankers and threatening detention or confiscation for violations of designated routes. These actions build on repeated July incidents and reflect efforts to enforce routing protocols and fees amid U.S. naval responses and blockade measures. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping add regional spillover pressure, while any new diplomatic engagement or escalation in enforcement before late-August resolution windows could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Volume
$181,165End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran's ongoing campaign to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, strikes, and seizures on non-compliant commercial vessels remains the central driver of trader focus in this market. Following the breakdown of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum, Iranian forces struck the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY and seized the tanker AMARA in mid-August, with authorities on August 24 blacklisting 45 tankers and threatening detention or confiscation for violations of designated routes. These actions build on repeated July incidents and reflect efforts to enforce routing protocols and fees amid U.S. naval responses and blockade measures. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping add regional spillover pressure, while any new diplomatic engagement or escalation in enforcement before late-August resolution windows could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$181,165End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's ongoing campaign to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz through warnings, strikes, and seizures on non-compliant commercial vessels remains the central driver of trader focus in this market. Following the breakdown of the June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum, Iranian forces struck the bulk carrier MINOAN DIGNITY and seized the tanker AMARA in mid-August, with authorities on August 24 blacklisting 45 tankers and threatening detention or confiscation for violations of designated routes. These actions build on repeated July incidents and reflect efforts to enforce routing protocols and fees amid U.S. naval responses and blockade measures. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping add regional spillover pressure, while any new diplomatic engagement or escalation in enforcement before late-August resolution windows could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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