Recent diplomatic momentum stems from the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which launched a 60-day window for technical working groups on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and Lebanon deconfliction, mediated primarily by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman. Progress has been uneven, with reported impasses after the mid-August deadline, Iranian denials of direct high-level contacts, U.S. sanctions actions, and mixed signals on ceasefire extensions. Indirect channels remain active through lower-level diplomats and envoys, though full implementation hinges on verifiable steps toward a permanent accord. Traders monitor statements from U.S. and Iranian officials alongside mediator updates for signs of renewed rounds before year-end, as historical patterns show such talks can resume or stall rapidly based on battlefield or economic developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$291,145 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
41%
Jared Kushner
37%
Steve Witkoff
43%
Abbas Araghchi
34%
J.D. Vance
31%
Ishaq Dar
30%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
22%
Rafael Grossi
19%
Nick Stewart
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Ahmad Vahidi
14%
Masoud Pezeshkian
13%
Marco Rubio
13%
Donald Trump
12%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
12%
Pete Hegseth
8%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$291,145 Vol.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$11,943 Vol.
41%
Jared Kushner
$12,493 Vol.
37%
Steve Witkoff
$17,730 Vol.
43%
Abbas Araghchi
$7,553 Vol.
34%
J.D. Vance
$20,433 Vol.
31%
Ishaq Dar
$17,490 Vol.
30%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,456 Vol.
24%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$26,949 Vol.
22%
Rafael Grossi
$17,948 Vol.
19%
Nick Stewart
$8,406 Vol.
18%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,946 Vol.
18%
Ahmad Vahidi
$7,072 Vol.
14%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$19,216 Vol.
13%
Marco Rubio
$13,201 Vol.
13%
Donald Trump
$7,380 Vol.
12%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$24,101 Vol.
12%
Pete Hegseth
$15,303 Vol.
8%
Esmail Qaani
$10,890 Vol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,880 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic momentum stems from the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which launched a 60-day window for technical working groups on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and Lebanon deconfliction, mediated primarily by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman. Progress has been uneven, with reported impasses after the mid-August deadline, Iranian denials of direct high-level contacts, U.S. sanctions actions, and mixed signals on ceasefire extensions. Indirect channels remain active through lower-level diplomats and envoys, though full implementation hinges on verifiable steps toward a permanent accord. Traders monitor statements from U.S. and Iranian officials alongside mediator updates for signs of renewed rounds before year-end, as historical patterns show such talks can resume or stall rapidly based on battlefield or economic developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$291,145End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent diplomatic momentum stems from the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which launched a 60-day window for technical working groups on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and Lebanon deconfliction, mediated primarily by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman. Progress has been uneven, with reported impasses after the mid-August deadline, Iranian denials of direct high-level contacts, U.S. sanctions actions, and mixed signals on ceasefire extensions. Indirect channels remain active through lower-level diplomats and envoys, though full implementation hinges on verifiable steps toward a permanent accord. Traders monitor statements from U.S. and Iranian officials alongside mediator updates for signs of renewed rounds before year-end, as historical patterns show such talks can resume or stall rapidly based on battlefield or economic developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$291,145End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic momentum stems from the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which launched a 60-day window for technical working groups on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz navigation, and Lebanon deconfliction, mediated primarily by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman. Progress has been uneven, with reported impasses after the mid-August deadline, Iranian denials of direct high-level contacts, U.S. sanctions actions, and mixed signals on ceasefire extensions. Indirect channels remain active through lower-level diplomats and envoys, though full implementation hinges on verifiable steps toward a permanent accord. Traders monitor statements from U.S. and Iranian officials alongside mediator updates for signs of renewed rounds before year-end, as historical patterns show such talks can resume or stall rapidly based on battlefield or economic developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions