Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing Iran-US conflict have driven war-risk insurance premiums to 40 times normal levels, effectively pricing most commercial operators out of the Strait of Hormuz and sustaining a de facto blockade. This has compressed daily transits to single digits in recent weeks—such as three vessels on August 23 and five to seven on subsequent days per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85 per day. As a result, weekly totals cluster in the 25-49 range, aligning with the 90.5% market-implied probability. Recent mine-clearance operations by US forces and tentative Iran-Oman talks on a temporary corridor represent potential swing factors, though attacks on vessels and selective enforcement continue to suppress volumes. Any sustained diplomatic de-escalation or verifiable reopening could shift odds toward higher bins, but current risk dynamics and carrier rerouting advisories reinforce the low-traffic consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 24?
25-49 91%
<25 8%
50-74 2.8%
75-99 <1%
$11,881 Vol.
$11,881 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<25
8%
25-49
91%
50-74
3%
75-99
1%
100+
1%
25-49 91%
<25 8%
50-74 2.8%
75-99 <1%
$11,881 Vol.
$11,881 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<25
$4,726 Vol.
8%
25-49
$3,820 Vol.
91%
50-74
$1,133 Vol.
3%
75-99
$873 Vol.
1%
100+
$1,329 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing Iran-US conflict have driven war-risk insurance premiums to 40 times normal levels, effectively pricing most commercial operators out of the Strait of Hormuz and sustaining a de facto blockade. This has compressed daily transits to single digits in recent weeks—such as three vessels on August 23 and five to seven on subsequent days per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85 per day. As a result, weekly totals cluster in the 25-49 range, aligning with the 90.5% market-implied probability. Recent mine-clearance operations by US forces and tentative Iran-Oman talks on a temporary corridor represent potential swing factors, though attacks on vessels and selective enforcement continue to suppress volumes. Any sustained diplomatic de-escalation or verifiable reopening could shift odds toward higher bins, but current risk dynamics and carrier rerouting advisories reinforce the low-traffic consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$11,881End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing Iran-US conflict have driven war-risk insurance premiums to 40 times normal levels, effectively pricing most commercial operators out of the Strait of Hormuz and sustaining a de facto blockade. This has compressed daily transits to single digits in recent weeks—such as three vessels on August 23 and five to seven on subsequent days per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85 per day. As a result, weekly totals cluster in the 25-49 range, aligning with the 90.5% market-implied probability. Recent mine-clearance operations by US forces and tentative Iran-Oman talks on a temporary corridor represent potential swing factors, though attacks on vessels and selective enforcement continue to suppress volumes. Any sustained diplomatic de-escalation or verifiable reopening could shift odds toward higher bins, but current risk dynamics and carrier rerouting advisories reinforce the low-traffic consensus.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$11,881End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing Iran-US conflict have driven war-risk insurance premiums to 40 times normal levels, effectively pricing most commercial operators out of the Strait of Hormuz and sustaining a de facto blockade. This has compressed daily transits to single digits in recent weeks—such as three vessels on August 23 and five to seven on subsequent days per Kpler and IMF PortWatch data—well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 85 per day. As a result, weekly totals cluster in the 25-49 range, aligning with the 90.5% market-implied probability. Recent mine-clearance operations by US forces and tentative Iran-Oman talks on a temporary corridor represent potential swing factors, though attacks on vessels and selective enforcement continue to suppress volumes. Any sustained diplomatic de-escalation or verifiable reopening could shift odds toward higher bins, but current risk dynamics and carrier rerouting advisories reinforce the low-traffic consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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