Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at just 3–5 vessels per day against an 85–130 pre-crisis baseline, according to IMF PortWatch and Kpler data, with war-risk insurance premiums at 40× normal levels deterring most operators. Major container lines including Maersk and MSC continue Cape of Good Hope reroutes, while ~420 vessels remain stranded and AIS-dark shadow-fleet movements account for limited activity. Recent incidents, including the August 26 strike on the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II and persistent mine risks despite US clearance claims, reinforce elevated security costs that suppress throughput to roughly 4% of normal. Iran-Oman corridor negotiations and any de-escalation in sanctions or naval posture represent the key near-term catalysts that could lift daily counts before the September 30 resolution window closes. Brent crude near $89 reflects these supply-chain frictions without full normalization priced in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at just 3–5 vessels per day against an 85–130 pre-crisis baseline, according to IMF PortWatch and Kpler data, with war-risk insurance premiums at 40× normal levels deterring most operators. Major container lines including Maersk and MSC continue Cape of Good Hope reroutes, while ~420 vessels remain stranded and AIS-dark shadow-fleet movements account for limited activity. Recent incidents, including the August 26 strike on the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II and persistent mine risks despite US clearance claims, reinforce elevated security costs that suppress throughput to roughly 4% of normal. Iran-Oman corridor negotiations and any de-escalation in sanctions or naval posture represent the key near-term catalysts that could lift daily counts before the September 30 resolution window closes. Brent crude near $89 reflects these supply-chain frictions without full normalization priced in.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volume
$11,081End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at just 3–5 vessels per day against an 85–130 pre-crisis baseline, according to IMF PortWatch and Kpler data, with war-risk insurance premiums at 40× normal levels deterring most operators. Major container lines including Maersk and MSC continue Cape of Good Hope reroutes, while ~420 vessels remain stranded and AIS-dark shadow-fleet movements account for limited activity. Recent incidents, including the August 26 strike on the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II and persistent mine risks despite US clearance claims, reinforce elevated security costs that suppress throughput to roughly 4% of normal. Iran-Oman corridor negotiations and any de-escalation in sanctions or naval posture represent the key near-term catalysts that could lift daily counts before the September 30 resolution window closes. Brent crude near $89 reflects these supply-chain frictions without full normalization priced in.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$11,081End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at just 3–5 vessels per day against an 85–130 pre-crisis baseline, according to IMF PortWatch and Kpler data, with war-risk insurance premiums at 40× normal levels deterring most operators. Major container lines including Maersk and MSC continue Cape of Good Hope reroutes, while ~420 vessels remain stranded and AIS-dark shadow-fleet movements account for limited activity. Recent incidents, including the August 26 strike on the Kuwaiti tanker Al Salam II and persistent mine risks despite US clearance claims, reinforce elevated security costs that suppress throughput to roughly 4% of normal. Iran-Oman corridor negotiations and any de-escalation in sanctions or naval posture represent the key near-term catalysts that could lift daily counts before the September 30 resolution window closes. Brent crude near $89 reflects these supply-chain frictions without full normalization priced in.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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