**Iran’s Supreme Leader succession process accelerated dramatically following the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.** An interim leadership council assumed duties under Article 111 of the constitution while the 88-member Assembly of Experts convened to select a successor. Amid active military operations, external threats targeting potential leaders, and internal regime priorities for continuity, the Assembly elected Mojtaba Khamenei in early March 2026. This outcome reflected institutional mechanisms, wartime urgency, and the Assembly’s role in vetting candidates, with the new leader assuming the position weeks after the prior supreme leader’s death. Markets tracking a leadership change by mid-2026 or later reflect this completed transition, though any future shifts would hinge on the Assembly’s ongoing authority or unforeseen developments in the conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,011,049 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
September 30
3%
October 31
7%
November 30
10%
December 31
16%
June 30, 2027
25%
$24,011,049 Vol.
August 31
$1,453,973 Vol.
<1%
September 30
$480,579 Vol.
3%
October 31
$25,718 Vol.
7%
November 30
$18,737 Vol.
10%
December 31
$4,096,232 Vol.
16%
June 30, 2027
$248,087 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran’s Supreme Leader succession process accelerated dramatically following the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.** An interim leadership council assumed duties under Article 111 of the constitution while the 88-member Assembly of Experts convened to select a successor. Amid active military operations, external threats targeting potential leaders, and internal regime priorities for continuity, the Assembly elected Mojtaba Khamenei in early March 2026. This outcome reflected institutional mechanisms, wartime urgency, and the Assembly’s role in vetting candidates, with the new leader assuming the position weeks after the prior supreme leader’s death. Markets tracking a leadership change by mid-2026 or later reflect this completed transition, though any future shifts would hinge on the Assembly’s ongoing authority or unforeseen developments in the conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$24,011,049End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran’s Supreme Leader succession process accelerated dramatically following the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.** An interim leadership council assumed duties under Article 111 of the constitution while the 88-member Assembly of Experts convened to select a successor. Amid active military operations, external threats targeting potential leaders, and internal regime priorities for continuity, the Assembly elected Mojtaba Khamenei in early March 2026. This outcome reflected institutional mechanisms, wartime urgency, and the Assembly’s role in vetting candidates, with the new leader assuming the position weeks after the prior supreme leader’s death. Markets tracking a leadership change by mid-2026 or later reflect this completed transition, though any future shifts would hinge on the Assembly’s ongoing authority or unforeseen developments in the conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$24,011,049End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran’s Supreme Leader succession process accelerated dramatically following the February 28, 2026, U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.** An interim leadership council assumed duties under Article 111 of the constitution while the 88-member Assembly of Experts convened to select a successor. Amid active military operations, external threats targeting potential leaders, and internal regime priorities for continuity, the Assembly elected Mojtaba Khamenei in early March 2026. This outcome reflected institutional mechanisms, wartime urgency, and the Assembly’s role in vetting candidates, with the new leader assuming the position weeks after the prior supreme leader’s death. Markets tracking a leadership change by mid-2026 or later reflect this completed transition, though any future shifts would hinge on the Assembly’s ongoing authority or unforeseen developments in the conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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