Recent Houthi attacks, including the strike on the Saudi-linked tanker AMZAN, and ongoing blockade threats have elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value while prompting more carriers to test dark (AIS-off) transits and selective Suez resumption. MarineTraffic data for the prior week showed 269 Bab el-Mandeb crossings (up 3.1% week-over-week), with laden traffic rising to 131 amid a mix of ballast and sanctioned vessels. This environment creates tight clustering around the 180-199 band as traders weigh partial normalization—supported by MSC and Maersk service additions—against sharp downside risks from further incidents or insurance pullbacks that could compress volumes toward or below 200. Key swing factors include daily commodity-vessel counts and any escalation in targeting criteria ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
180-199 32%
220+ 23%
200-219 21%
<160 15%
$14,166 Vol.
$14,166 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
15%
160-179
11%
180-199
32%
200-219
21%
220+
23%
180-199 32%
220+ 23%
200-219 21%
<160 15%
$14,166 Vol.
$14,166 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$30 Vol.
15%
160-179
$80 Vol.
11%
180-199
$149 Vol.
32%
200-219
$13,060 Vol.
21%
220+
$847 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the strike on the Saudi-linked tanker AMZAN, and ongoing blockade threats have elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value while prompting more carriers to test dark (AIS-off) transits and selective Suez resumption. MarineTraffic data for the prior week showed 269 Bab el-Mandeb crossings (up 3.1% week-over-week), with laden traffic rising to 131 amid a mix of ballast and sanctioned vessels. This environment creates tight clustering around the 180-199 band as traders weigh partial normalization—supported by MSC and Maersk service additions—against sharp downside risks from further incidents or insurance pullbacks that could compress volumes toward or below 200. Key swing factors include daily commodity-vessel counts and any escalation in targeting criteria ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$14,166End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the strike on the Saudi-linked tanker AMZAN, and ongoing blockade threats have elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value while prompting more carriers to test dark (AIS-off) transits and selective Suez resumption. MarineTraffic data for the prior week showed 269 Bab el-Mandeb crossings (up 3.1% week-over-week), with laden traffic rising to 131 amid a mix of ballast and sanctioned vessels. This environment creates tight clustering around the 180-199 band as traders weigh partial normalization—supported by MSC and Maersk service additions—against sharp downside risks from further incidents or insurance pullbacks that could compress volumes toward or below 200. Key swing factors include daily commodity-vessel counts and any escalation in targeting criteria ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,166End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks, including the strike on the Saudi-linked tanker AMZAN, and ongoing blockade threats have elevated war-risk premiums above 1% of hull value while prompting more carriers to test dark (AIS-off) transits and selective Suez resumption. MarineTraffic data for the prior week showed 269 Bab el-Mandeb crossings (up 3.1% week-over-week), with laden traffic rising to 131 amid a mix of ballast and sanctioned vessels. This environment creates tight clustering around the 180-199 band as traders weigh partial normalization—supported by MSC and Maersk service additions—against sharp downside risks from further incidents or insurance pullbacks that could compress volumes toward or below 200. Key swing factors include daily commodity-vessel counts and any escalation in targeting criteria ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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