Geopolitical tensions from the Houthi naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, imposed in July 2026 amid the Iran war escalation, remain the dominant driver of Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes. Recent attacks, including the August 11 strike that killed six crew members, have sustained rerouting incentives and prompted some vessels to transit without AIS, compressing traceable flows to roughly 20–32 commodity ships per day in mid-to-late August. This environment has produced a market-implied 68.5% probability for 200+ weekly transits, reflecting trader consensus that volumes have stabilized near post-blockade lows rather than collapsing further. Upcoming data releases on traceable passages and any escalation in Houthi strikes or Saudi responses will serve as key catalysts for shifts in these aggregated probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 17?
200+ 69%
180-199 12%
160-179 9%
<160 3.6%
$27,067 Vol.
$27,067 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<160
4%
160-179
9%
180-199
12%
200+
69%
200+ 69%
180-199 12%
160-179 9%
<160 3.6%
$27,067 Vol.
$27,067 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<160
$7,292 Vol.
4%
160-179
$4,378 Vol.
9%
180-199
$6,348 Vol.
12%
200+
$9,050 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Geopolitical tensions from the Houthi naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, imposed in July 2026 amid the Iran war escalation, remain the dominant driver of Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes. Recent attacks, including the August 11 strike that killed six crew members, have sustained rerouting incentives and prompted some vessels to transit without AIS, compressing traceable flows to roughly 20–32 commodity ships per day in mid-to-late August. This environment has produced a market-implied 68.5% probability for 200+ weekly transits, reflecting trader consensus that volumes have stabilized near post-blockade lows rather than collapsing further. Upcoming data releases on traceable passages and any escalation in Houthi strikes or Saudi responses will serve as key catalysts for shifts in these aggregated probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$27,067End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Geopolitical tensions from the Houthi naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, imposed in July 2026 amid the Iran war escalation, remain the dominant driver of Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes. Recent attacks, including the August 11 strike that killed six crew members, have sustained rerouting incentives and prompted some vessels to transit without AIS, compressing traceable flows to roughly 20–32 commodity ships per day in mid-to-late August. This environment has produced a market-implied 68.5% probability for 200+ weekly transits, reflecting trader consensus that volumes have stabilized near post-blockade lows rather than collapsing further. Upcoming data releases on traceable passages and any escalation in Houthi strikes or Saudi responses will serve as key catalysts for shifts in these aggregated probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$27,067End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions from the Houthi naval blockade on Saudi-linked vessels, imposed in July 2026 amid the Iran war escalation, remain the dominant driver of Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes. Recent attacks, including the August 11 strike that killed six crew members, have sustained rerouting incentives and prompted some vessels to transit without AIS, compressing traceable flows to roughly 20–32 commodity ships per day in mid-to-late August. This environment has produced a market-implied 68.5% probability for 200+ weekly transits, reflecting trader consensus that volumes have stabilized near post-blockade lows rather than collapsing further. Upcoming data releases on traceable passages and any escalation in Houthi strikes or Saudi responses will serve as key catalysts for shifts in these aggregated probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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