President Trump’s July 2026 announcement that the United States would act as “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and seek 20 percent reimbursement on cargo value for naval protection triggered brief market movement, but the rapid reversal the next day—shifting to Gulf state investment and trade deals—sharply reduced implied probabilities. The International Maritime Organization has rejected any legal basis for mandatory tolls, while sanctions guidance highlights risks tied to Iranian fee demands. Ongoing U.S.-Iran frictions over shipping security and regional influence continue to shape trader views, yet no legislative or executive steps toward U.S. fees have materialized. Low odds across remaining 2026 resolution dates reflect expectations that diplomatic or commercial alternatives will prevail absent major escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS charges Hormuz fees by...?
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
$964,909 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
December 31
6%
$964,909 Vol.
August 31
$176,899 Vol.
1%
December 31
$100,858 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s July 2026 announcement that the United States would act as “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and seek 20 percent reimbursement on cargo value for naval protection triggered brief market movement, but the rapid reversal the next day—shifting to Gulf state investment and trade deals—sharply reduced implied probabilities. The International Maritime Organization has rejected any legal basis for mandatory tolls, while sanctions guidance highlights risks tied to Iranian fee demands. Ongoing U.S.-Iran frictions over shipping security and regional influence continue to shape trader views, yet no legislative or executive steps toward U.S. fees have materialized. Low odds across remaining 2026 resolution dates reflect expectations that diplomatic or commercial alternatives will prevail absent major escalation.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$964,909End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s July 2026 announcement that the United States would act as “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and seek 20 percent reimbursement on cargo value for naval protection triggered brief market movement, but the rapid reversal the next day—shifting to Gulf state investment and trade deals—sharply reduced implied probabilities. The International Maritime Organization has rejected any legal basis for mandatory tolls, while sanctions guidance highlights risks tied to Iranian fee demands. Ongoing U.S.-Iran frictions over shipping security and regional influence continue to shape trader views, yet no legislative or executive steps toward U.S. fees have materialized. Low odds across remaining 2026 resolution dates reflect expectations that diplomatic or commercial alternatives will prevail absent major escalation.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$964,909End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s July 2026 announcement that the United States would act as “guardian” of the Strait of Hormuz and seek 20 percent reimbursement on cargo value for naval protection triggered brief market movement, but the rapid reversal the next day—shifting to Gulf state investment and trade deals—sharply reduced implied probabilities. The International Maritime Organization has rejected any legal basis for mandatory tolls, while sanctions guidance highlights risks tied to Iranian fee demands. Ongoing U.S.-Iran frictions over shipping security and regional influence continue to shape trader views, yet no legislative or executive steps toward U.S. fees have materialized. Low odds across remaining 2026 resolution dates reflect expectations that diplomatic or commercial alternatives will prevail absent major escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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