North Korea has conducted three distinct ballistic missile test events in August 2026 so far—single short-range launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and 12, followed by a barrage of roughly ten missiles from the Pyongyang region on August 20. These occurred amid joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises that Pyongyang has long opposed, with the latest salvo coinciding with scaled-back drills and U.S. President Donald Trump’s public signals favoring renewed diplomacy with Kim Jong Un. No additional launches have been reported in the five days since August 20, leaving only a narrow window before month-end. Trader pricing for fewer than four total events reflects this recent lull and the limited time for further activity, while smaller probabilities for four or five tests allow for possible limited follow-on tests tied to ongoing regional tensions. The low odds on six or more account for the short remaining period and de-escalatory diplomatic gestures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
<4 65%
4 22.0%
5 7%
6+ 5.3%
$21,825 Vol.
$21,825 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<4
65%
4
14%
5
7%
6+
5%
<4 65%
4 22.0%
5 7%
6+ 5.3%
$21,825 Vol.
$21,825 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<4
$3,327 Vol.
65%
4
$715 Vol.
14%
5
$277 Vol.
7%
6+
$17,506 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted three distinct ballistic missile test events in August 2026 so far—single short-range launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and 12, followed by a barrage of roughly ten missiles from the Pyongyang region on August 20. These occurred amid joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises that Pyongyang has long opposed, with the latest salvo coinciding with scaled-back drills and U.S. President Donald Trump’s public signals favoring renewed diplomacy with Kim Jong Un. No additional launches have been reported in the five days since August 20, leaving only a narrow window before month-end. Trader pricing for fewer than four total events reflects this recent lull and the limited time for further activity, while smaller probabilities for four or five tests allow for possible limited follow-on tests tied to ongoing regional tensions. The low odds on six or more account for the short remaining period and de-escalatory diplomatic gestures.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:36 PM ET
Volume
$21,825End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea has conducted three distinct ballistic missile test events in August 2026 so far—single short-range launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and 12, followed by a barrage of roughly ten missiles from the Pyongyang region on August 20. These occurred amid joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises that Pyongyang has long opposed, with the latest salvo coinciding with scaled-back drills and U.S. President Donald Trump’s public signals favoring renewed diplomacy with Kim Jong Un. No additional launches have been reported in the five days since August 20, leaving only a narrow window before month-end. Trader pricing for fewer than four total events reflects this recent lull and the limited time for further activity, while smaller probabilities for four or five tests allow for possible limited follow-on tests tied to ongoing regional tensions. The low odds on six or more account for the short remaining period and de-escalatory diplomatic gestures.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$21,825End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea has conducted three distinct ballistic missile test events in August 2026 so far—single short-range launches from the Wonsan area on August 6 and 12, followed by a barrage of roughly ten missiles from the Pyongyang region on August 20. These occurred amid joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises that Pyongyang has long opposed, with the latest salvo coinciding with scaled-back drills and U.S. President Donald Trump’s public signals favoring renewed diplomacy with Kim Jong Un. No additional launches have been reported in the five days since August 20, leaving only a narrow window before month-end. Trader pricing for fewer than four total events reflects this recent lull and the limited time for further activity, while smaller probabilities for four or five tests allow for possible limited follow-on tests tied to ongoing regional tensions. The low odds on six or more account for the short remaining period and de-escalatory diplomatic gestures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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