US military operations against Iranian positions in the Persian Gulf have intensified in 2026, with strikes targeting command sites, missile facilities, and strategic islands such as Greater Tunb to degrade capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz. Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost, has not been subject to reported strikes, seizures, or territorial shifts, unlike higher-profile locations. Trader pricing on the market reflects this limited focus, with implied probabilities below 10% for any change in Iranian control by late August 2026. Resolution hinges on verifiable loss of primary governmental or military authority to another state or force, excluding temporary actions. Continued escalation or de-escalation in the broader conflict could influence outcomes, though no scheduled events specifically target Farsi.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$174,214 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$174,214 Vol.
August 31
$165,321 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iranian positions in the Persian Gulf have intensified in 2026, with strikes targeting command sites, missile facilities, and strategic islands such as Greater Tunb to degrade capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz. Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost, has not been subject to reported strikes, seizures, or territorial shifts, unlike higher-profile locations. Trader pricing on the market reflects this limited focus, with implied probabilities below 10% for any change in Iranian control by late August 2026. Resolution hinges on verifiable loss of primary governmental or military authority to another state or force, excluding temporary actions. Continued escalation or de-escalation in the broader conflict could influence outcomes, though no scheduled events specifically target Farsi.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Volume
$174,214End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military operations against Iranian positions in the Persian Gulf have intensified in 2026, with strikes targeting command sites, missile facilities, and strategic islands such as Greater Tunb to degrade capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz. Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost, has not been subject to reported strikes, seizures, or territorial shifts, unlike higher-profile locations. Trader pricing on the market reflects this limited focus, with implied probabilities below 10% for any change in Iranian control by late August 2026. Resolution hinges on verifiable loss of primary governmental or military authority to another state or force, excluding temporary actions. Continued escalation or de-escalation in the broader conflict could influence outcomes, though no scheduled events specifically target Farsi.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$174,214End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military operations against Iranian positions in the Persian Gulf have intensified in 2026, with strikes targeting command sites, missile facilities, and strategic islands such as Greater Tunb to degrade capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz. Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost, has not been subject to reported strikes, seizures, or territorial shifts, unlike higher-profile locations. Trader pricing on the market reflects this limited focus, with implied probabilities below 10% for any change in Iranian control by late August 2026. Resolution hinges on verifiable loss of primary governmental or military authority to another state or force, excluding temporary actions. Continued escalation or de-escalation in the broader conflict could influence outcomes, though no scheduled events specifically target Farsi.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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