Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and islands such as Greater Tunb and Abu Musa in the Strait of Hormuz, have shaped trader assessments of territorial control. Iran has asserted sovereignty through naval operations, shipping route mandates, and proposed legislation to formalize management and fees, while pursuing talks with Oman on a joint authority. A June 2026 MOU briefly eased tensions before renewed attacks prompted the US to reimpose a naval blockade and reject arrangements that would entrench Iranian oversight. As of mid-August 2026, competing claims of control persist amid ongoing diplomacy, with any shift in island status dependent on verifiable military occupation or formal cession rather than naval interdiction alone. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-Oman negotiations and potential US policy shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$63,394 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
$63,394 Vol.
August 31
$51,657 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and islands such as Greater Tunb and Abu Musa in the Strait of Hormuz, have shaped trader assessments of territorial control. Iran has asserted sovereignty through naval operations, shipping route mandates, and proposed legislation to formalize management and fees, while pursuing talks with Oman on a joint authority. A June 2026 MOU briefly eased tensions before renewed attacks prompted the US to reimpose a naval blockade and reject arrangements that would entrench Iranian oversight. As of mid-August 2026, competing claims of control persist amid ongoing diplomacy, with any shift in island status dependent on verifiable military occupation or formal cession rather than naval interdiction alone. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-Oman negotiations and potential US policy shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$63,394End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and islands such as Greater Tunb and Abu Musa in the Strait of Hormuz, have shaped trader assessments of territorial control. Iran has asserted sovereignty through naval operations, shipping route mandates, and proposed legislation to formalize management and fees, while pursuing talks with Oman on a joint authority. A June 2026 MOU briefly eased tensions before renewed attacks prompted the US to reimpose a naval blockade and reject arrangements that would entrench Iranian oversight. As of mid-August 2026, competing claims of control persist amid ongoing diplomacy, with any shift in island status dependent on verifiable military occupation or formal cession rather than naval interdiction alone. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-Oman negotiations and potential US policy shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$63,394End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges since February 2026, including repeated US strikes on Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and islands such as Greater Tunb and Abu Musa in the Strait of Hormuz, have shaped trader assessments of territorial control. Iran has asserted sovereignty through naval operations, shipping route mandates, and proposed legislation to formalize management and fees, while pursuing talks with Oman on a joint authority. A June 2026 MOU briefly eased tensions before renewed attacks prompted the US to reimpose a naval blockade and reject arrangements that would entrench Iranian oversight. As of mid-August 2026, competing claims of control persist amid ongoing diplomacy, with any shift in island status dependent on verifiable military occupation or formal cession rather than naval interdiction alone. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-Oman negotiations and potential US policy shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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